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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 The relation between parameter uncertainty and the predictability of the geothermal reservoir 2 evolution will be investigated with thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) effects included. 3 The availability of fully coupled and efficient THMC codes provides a new basis for developing 4 more reliable models with parameter identification at the reservoir scale based on inverse modelling 5 techniques. 6 4.6.4 Efficient production of geothermal power, heat and/or cooling 7 [TSU: references missing.] 8 Technical equipment needed to provide heat and/or electricity from geothermal wells is already 9 available on the market. However, the efficiency of the different system components can still be 10 improved, especially for low-enthalpy power plant cycles, cooling systems, heat exchangers and 11 production pumps for the brine. 12 Thermodynamic cycles have to be improved, and thermal heat sources must be utilised more 13 efficiently, both at the heat exchanger to a second cycle, in district heating and in conversion to 14 electrical power. For power generation, a modular low-temperature cycle could be set up allowing 15 for conventional and new working fluids to be examined. 16 New and cost-efficient materials are required for pipes, casing liners, pumps, heat exchangers and 17 for other components to be used in geothermal cycles to reach higher efficiencies and develop 18 cascade uses. 19 New inexpensive designs of small geothermal power plants using low-temperature reservoirs and 20 able to generate distributed electricity, are likely to appear soon in the market. Those plants should 21 be small, mass manufactured, easy to move from place to place, and easy to operate. 22 The potential development of valuable by-products may improve the economics of geothermal 23 development, such as recovery of the condensate for industrial applications after an appropriate 24 treatment, and in some cases recovery of valuable minerals from geothermal brines (such as lithium, 25 zinc, and in some cases, gold). 26 4.7 Cost trends 27 As other RE technologies, geothermal projects have high up-front costs (mainly due to the cost of 28 drilling wells) and low operational costs. These operational costs vary from one project to another 29 due to size, quality of the geothermal fluids, and so on, but are predictable in comparison with 30 power plants of traditional energy sources which are usually subject to market fluctuations on fuel 31 price. This section describes the capital costs of geothermal-electric projects, the levelized cost of 32 geothermal electricity and the historic and probable future trends, and also presents some costs for 33 direct uses of geothermal energy. 34 4.7.1 Costs of geothermal-electric projects and factors that affect it 35 The cost structure of a geothermal-electric project is composed of the following components: a) 36 exploration and resource confirmation, b) drilling of production and injection wells, c) surface 37 facilities and infrastructure, and d) power plant. Field expansion projects may cost 10-15% lesser 38 than a new (greenfield) project, since investments have already been made in infrastructure and 39 exploration and valuable resource information is available (Stefansson, 2002; Hance, 2005). 40 The first component (a) includes lease/acquisition, permitting, prospecting and drilling of 41 exploration and test wells. Drilling of this type of wells has a success rate typically about 50-60% 42 (Hance, 2005). Confirmation costs are affected by: well parameters (depth and diameter), rock Do Not Cite or Quote 28 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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