Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy

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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy ( chapter-4-geothermal-energy )

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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Condensing Binary 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 1 2 Figure 4.10. Variation in capex cost for condensing and binary geothermal-electric plants (To be 3 ). [TSU: detailed data sources missing.] 4 Regarding the geothermal-electric plants performance, since 1995 the average capacity factor has 5 been continuously increasing, and the average geothermal capacity factor based on 2008 global 6 generation versus installed capacity is around 75%. However, in the past, this value incorporated a 7 wide range of generation issues, including: grid connection failures (e.g. from storm damage), load 8 following on smaller grids, turbine failures (some operating geothermal turbines have exceeded 9 their economic lifetime, so require longer periods of shut-down for maintenance or replacement), 10 and lack of make-up drilling to sustain long-term steam supply (usually due to financial 11 constraints). For new developments, assuming no such grid or load constraints, long-term capacity 12 factors above 95% can be expected (Fridleifsson et al., 2008; Fig. 4.11). 13 4.7.4 Future costs trends 14 The future costs for geothermal electricity are hard to predict. This is because future deployment 15 will probably include an increasing percentage of unconventional development types (such as EGS, 16 super-critical temperature and off-shore resources), which are still not commercially proven and 17 presently only limited cost data about them are available. 18 19 20 21 22 23 Some assumptions remained the same: project lifetime is 30 years and the commissioning year for 24 greenfield projects is between fourth and sixth year since exploration starts and for expansion 25 projects is the third year. Figures for 2009 are those already presented in Figure 4.10. For 2020 it 26 was assumed that the drilling cost does not vary since not many differences are expected in the oil 27 industry, yet for 2030 this cost was estimated to be 7% lower and for 2050 15% lower than present 28 costs, in all cases at 2005 US$. These decreasing costs are expected to occur due to better 29 technological practices in the drilling industry and due to a probably higher availability of drilling 30 rigs on that dates. Worldwide average capacity factors for 2020, 2030 and 2050 were assumed to be 31 81%, 85% and 90%, respectively, according to Figure 4.11. All the remaining aspects and costs 32 were considered not variable, even though improvements in exploration, 33 installations, materials and power plants are likely, which would lead to reduced costs. Do Not Cite or Quote 33 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09 completed with more data? [by AUTHORS] cost represents between 20 and 40% of total capital costs (Table 4.7) and the projected plant mentioned were calculated using the same calculator developed by Verbruggen and Nyboer (2009), However, considering that the drilling performance shown in Fig. 4.11 by 2020, 2030 and 2050, future LCOE for the cases before and are shown in Figure 4.12 considering only a discount rate of 7%, which is the rate decided to be used for all RE future costs trends in this report. [TSU: sentence structure and length] superficial [TSU: surface?] 2005 US$/kW

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