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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 4.8 Potential deployment 2 Overall, the geothermal-electric market appears to be accelerating, as indicated by the trends in both 3 the number of new countries developing geothermal energy and the total of new megawatts of 4 power capacity under development. It is, however, difficult to predict future rates of deployment, 5 because of the numerous variables involved. Using present technology to develop additional 6 hydrothermal resources and given favourable economic drivers, an increase from the current value 7 of 10.7 GWe of installed capacity, up to 70 or 80 GWe could be achievable by 2050. The gradual 8 introduction of new technology improvements including EGS is expected to boost the growth rate 9 exponentially after 10-20 years, reaching an expected global target of ~160 GWe by 2050 (Fig. 10 4.1). Some of the new technologies (for example, binary conversion plants, multilateral 11 completions, etc.) have already been proven and are now rapidly deploying, whereas others are 12 entering the field demonstration phases to prove commercial viability (EGS), or early investigation 13 stages to test practicality (utilization of supercritical temperature and submarine hydrothermal vents 14 or off-shore resources). 15 Low-temperature power generation with binary plants has opened up the possibilities of producing 16 electricity in countries which do not have high-temperature resources or may have requirements for 17 total re-injection. EGS technologies (deep drilling in lower grade regions, reservoir stimulation and 18 pumping) are being developed to access resources in this setting. Supercritical and off-shore 19 resources are also under investigation. If these technologies can be proven economical at 20 commercial scales, the geothermal market potential could be limited only by demand and not by 21 resource access. 22 Direct use of geothermal energy for heating is currently commercially competitive, using 23 accessible, high grade hydrothermal resources. A moderate increase is expected in the future 24 development of such hydrothermal resources for direct use, mainly because of dependence on 25 resource proximity and therefore on local economic factors, along with the multiple uses of 26 geothermal resources in combined heat and power plants. In contrast, an exponential increase is 27 expected with the deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHP) and direct use in lower grade 28 regions, which can be used for heating and/or cooling in most parts of the world. Marketing the 29 cost/benefit advantages of direct use, including the inclusion of GHPs in programs will support the 30 uptake of RE and increase efficiencies of using existing electricity supplies by creating necessary 31 infrastructure for widespread deployment. 32 4.8.1 Regional deployment 33 [TSU: references missing.] 34 4.8.1.1 Conventional hydrothermal resources 35 On a regional basis, the deployment potential for harnessing identified and prospective conventional 36 hydrothermal resources varies significantly. In Europe and Central Asia, there are a few countries 37 that have well-developed high temperature resources (e.g. Italy and Turkey, see Figure 4.1). In such 38 countries, there are significant opportunities for future expansion, particularly if access and 39 technical barriers can be overcome. Many other European and Asian countries have huge under- 40 developed hot water resources, of lower temperature, located within sedimentary basins at various 41 depths (e.g. Paris, Pannonian, and Beijing basins). These require pumped extraction, and are mostly 42 suitable for direct heating, but could also be utilised to generate electricity using binary plant 43 technology. In the African continent, Kenya was the first country to utilise its rich hydrothermal 44 resources for both electricity generation and direct use, and several other countries along the East 45 African Rift Valley may follow suit. In North America (US and Mexico) the existing installed 46 capacity of almost 4 GWe, mostly from mature developments, is expected to double in the short Do Not Cite or Quote 37 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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