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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 term (5-7 years). By 2050, a significant proportion of the estimated unidentified resource base in the 2 western US (30 GWe) and Alaska and co-production of energy from hot water discharged by oil 3 wells (5 GWe) is also considered technically feasible now. In the Central American countries the 4 geothermal potential for electricity generation has been estimated to be 4 GWe (Lippmann, 2002) of 5 which 12% has been harnessed so far (~0.5 GWe). South American countries, particularly along the 6 Andes mountain chain, also have significant untapped --and under-explored-- hydrothermal 7 resource potentials (at least 2 GWe). 8 For island nations with mature histories of geothermal development, such as New Zealand, Iceland, 9 Philippines, Japan and Hawaii, identified geothermal resources imply a future expansion potential 10 of 2 to 5 times existing installed capacity, although constraints such as limited grid capacity, 11 existing or planned generation (from other renewable energy sources) and environmental factors 12 (such as National Park status of some resource areas), may limit the conventional geothermal 13 deployment to approximately twice the existing capacity over the next 40 years. Other volcanic 14 islands in the Pacific Ocean (Papua-New Guinea, Solomon, Fiji, etc.) and the Atlantic Ocean 15 (Azores, Caribbean, etc.), have significant potential for growth from known hydrothermal resources 16 to replace fossil fuelled heating or power-plants, but are also grid constrained in growth potential. 17 Remote parts of Russia (Kamchatka) and China (Tibet) contain identified high temperature 18 hydrothermal resources, the use of which could be significantly expanded given the right incentives 19 and access to load. Parts of other South-East Asian nations (including India) contain numerous hot 20 springs, inferring the possibility of potential, as yet unexplored, hydrothermal resources. Indonesia 21 is one of the world’s richest countries in geothermal resources and could, by 2050, replace a 22 considerable part of its fossil fuelled electricity production by increasing its geothermal energy 23 capacity by up to 20 times to 20 GWe. 24 Potential geothermal deployment for electricity (including EGS) and for direct use (including direct 25 heating and cooling and GHP) by regions, are presented in Table 4.8. 26 Table 4.8. Expected deployment of geothermal energy by region. REGION 1. OECD North America 2. Latin America 3. OECD Europe 4. Africa 5. Transition Economies 6. Middle East 7. Developing Asia 8. India 9. China 10. OECD Pacific TOTAL EJ Equivalent Current (2009) 2020 2030 2050 Direct* (GWt) 8.443 0.545 10.959 1.520 1.064 0.422 0.478 0.203 3.687 1.257 28.578 0.279 Electric Direct (GWe) (GWt) 4.052 50.0 0.509 2.0 1.551 62.0 0.174 4.0 0.082 3.0 0 1.0 3.166 5.0 0 2.0 0.024 20.0 1.184 6.0 10.743 155.0 0.256 1.589 Electric (GWe) 9.5 1.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.0 2.5 25.0 0.639 Direct (GWt) Electric (GWe) Direct Electric (GWt) (GWe) 230.0 42.0 10.0 7.0 300.0 28.0 18.0 9.5 10.0 5.0 7.0 3.5 20.0 31.0 10.0 3.0 125.0 17.0 85.0 14.0 815.0 160.0 8.353 4.541 120.0 15.0 5.0 3.0 150.0 5.5 11.0 1.5 5.0 1.0 4.0 0.5 10.0 14.0 5.0 1.0 50.0 4.0 15.0 4.5 375.0 50.0 3.843 1.34 27 * Data for 2005, which will be updated later. Direct includes direct heating and cooling and 28 Geothermal Heat Pumps. Electric includes Enhanced Geothermal Systems. [TSU: Please add 29 source.] Do Not Cite or Quote 38 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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