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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 4.8.1.2 Enhanced Geothermal Systems 2 Resource grades for EGS vary substantially on a regional basis as well. This will have direct impact 3 on the rate of deployment even after demonstrating EGS technology at commercial scale in the 4 field. In addition, the availability of financing, water, transmission and distribution infrastructure 5 and other factors will play major roles in regional deployment rates. In the US, Australia, and 6 Europe, EGS concepts are already being field tested and deployed, providing advantages for 7 accelerated deployment in those regions as risks and uncertainties are reduced. In other rapidly 8 developing regions in Asia, Africa, and South America, factors that would affect deployment are 9 population density, electricity and heating and cooling demand. 10 Half of the total geothermal electric deployment by 2050 is expected to be contributed by EGS. 11 This ~80 GWe projection depends not only on improvements gained by experience of using 12 existing drilling, reservoir stimulation, and energy conversion technologies used both in 13 hydrothermal and EGS projects, but also on the presence of suitable energy markets, favourable 14 policies, and available attractive financing in all cases. At some level of deployment, given its 15 modular and scalable characteristic, the rate of adoption of EGS is anticipated to accelerate and 16 propagate globally. 17 4.8.1.3 Direct uses and geothermal heat pumps 18 The potential deployment in the geothermal direct use market is very large, as space heating and 19 water heating are significant parts of the energy budget in large parts of the world. In industrialised 20 countries, 35 to 40% of the total primary energy consumption is used in buildings. In Europe, 30% 21 of energy use is for space and water heating alone, representing 75% of total building energy use. 22 The high potential deployment is due in large part to the ability of geothermal ground-source heat 23 pumps to utilise groundwater or ground-coupled heat exchangers anywhere in the world. This use 24 has huge potential for saving energy in buildings which represent over 30% of our primary demand. 25 Estimation for future development of the worldwide geothermal utilisation market was presented in 26 Table 4.8 on a regional basis, for 2020, 2030 and 2050. Projections were estimated considering a 27 different annual growth for GHP installations and for other direct uses, as shown in Table 4.9. 28 Table 4.9. Estimation of future deployment of geothermal direct uses, distinguishing Geothermal 29 Heat Pumps (GHP) up to 2100 (Modified from Fridleifsson et al., 2008) Y ear Average annual growth rate from 2005 Installed capacity (GWt) Other direct uses (%) GHP (%) -- ~20.0 ~15.0 ~13.0 ~11.0 ~9.0 ~5.0 Direct Uses 12.87 18.00 31.00 45.00 60.00 75.00 150.00 GHP 15.72 37.00 124.00 330.00 595.00 740.00 1,600.00 Total 28.59 55.00 155.00 375.00 655.00 815.00 1,750.00 2005 -- 2010 ~7.0 2020 ~6.0 2030 ~5.0 2040 ~4.4 2050 ~4.0 2100 ~2.5 30 31 As shown in Table 4.9, estimations show that while only a moderate increase is expected in direct 32 use applications, an exponential increase is foreseen in the heat pump sector. The combined GHP 33 plus other uses deployment expected for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are the same than in Table 4.8, while 34 the total for 2100 corresponds to the economic potential reported in Table 4.2 for geothermal direct 35 uses. 36 4.8.2 Technological factors influencing deployment Do Not Cite or Quote 39 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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