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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 Direct heating technologies using GHP, district heating and EGS methods are available, with 2 different degrees of maturity. GHP systems have the widest market penetration, and an increased 3 deployment will be supported by improving the coefficient of performance and installation 4 efficiency. The direct use of thermal fluids from deep aquifers, and heat extraction using EGS, can 5 be increased by further technical advances associated with accessing and engineering fractures in 6 the geothermal reservoirs. The latter requires a better knowledge and measurement of the 7 subsurface stress field. For EGS, additional remaining challenges are: drilling costs for deep wells, 8 reservoir stimulation, management of induced seismicity, demonstration of sustainable production 9 at commercial scale. 10 Geothermal power generation technologies also have different degrees of maturity. Reducing sub- 11 surface exploration risks will contribute to more efficient and sustainable development. Drilling of 12 high temperature reservoirs requires advanced technologies to prevent reservoir damage by drilling 13 mud. An example is the use of balanced drilling procedures. Improved utilisation efficiency 14 requires better auxiliary energy use and improved performance of surface installations. Better 15 reservoir management, with improved simulation models, will optimize reinjection strategy, avoid 16 excessive depletion, and plan future make-up well requirements, to achieve sustainable production. 17 Improvement in energy utilisation efficiency from cascaded use of geothermal heat is an important 18 deployment strategy. Evaluating the performance of geothermal plants, including heat and power 19 EGS installations, will consider heat quality of the fluid by differentiating between the energy and 20 the exergy or availability content (that part of the energy that can be converted to electric power). 21 4.8.3 Long-term deployment in the context of carbon mitigation 22 The expected long-term deployment (2020, 2030 and 2050) based on the before mentioned 23 assumptions, was presented in Table 4.8. The worldwide expected installed capacity by 2020 is 25 24 GWe for geothermal electric plants and 155 GWt for geothermal direct uses. These figures are 25 equivalent to 0.639 EJ and 1.589 EJ, respectively, for a total primary energy supply (TPES) of 26 2.228 EJ. Corresponding figures for 2030 are 1.340 EJ and 3.843 EJ, for a geothermal TPES of 27 5.183 EJ, and for 2050 are 4.541 EJ and 8.353 EJ for a TPES of 12.894 EJ. 28 All those figures are independent of the rate of carbon mitigation that could be achieved by 2020, 29 2030 and 2050, since geothermal deployment is not technically affected by that effect – as 30 mentioned earlier in this chapter. However, it is likely that the more restricted the CO2 emissions 31 will be in the future the higher geothermal deployment will be. A number of different scenarios 32 have been modelled from the integrated assessment models presented in Chapter 10, taking into 33 account the stabilization categories of CO2 emissions regarded by the IPCC AR4 and grouping them 34 into three: categories I+II (<440 ppm), III+IV (440-600 ppm) and V+VI (>600 ppm). Do Not Cite or Quote 40 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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