Concentrating Solar Power

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Concentrating Solar Power ( concentrating-solar-power )

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and a five-year plan to transition CSP from proven concepts to marketable products. The strategy coordinates R&D and deployment activities to advance CSP toward cost-competitiveness and market penetration in the context of working with the CSP industry and the southwestern states through the Western Governors’ Association. The core element of the strategy is to expand R&D to increase the efficiency and reliability of CSP technologies, while decreasing their costs through manufacturing and deployment. 3.2.3 CSP Strategic and Performance Goals The following goals and objectives are planned over the 2007–2011 time frame based on the long-term goal that CSP will be directly competitive with fossil-generated electricity within a 10–15-year horizon. Strategic Long-Term Goal The long-term goal of the CSP Subprogram is to develop parabolic trough and dish/Stirling power plant technologies that produce electricity that is competitive with electricity from conventional fossil power technologies in identified markets. The market for parabolic trough systems is dispatchable, intermediate-load, wholesale generation where the value of electricity is in the mid to high range of $0.05–$0.08/kWh, based on a natural gas price of $5/MMBtu.4 The market for dish/Stirling systems during the next 5 years is central-station, wholesale power generation, although longer- term markets will likely include niche markets such as utility grid support, remote power, and village power. The value for power in non-dispatchable markets is $0.04/kWh. 5-Year Performance Goals and Technical Objectives By 2011, the CSP Subprogram will assist technology development for and validate the performance of a 150-MW trough plant. A 100-MW reference plant is projected to: • Achieve a design point solar-to-electric efficiency of 25.6% and annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 15.5% • Use an advanced thermocline thermal storage system that provides up to 6 hours of storage (capacity factor of ~0.43) and cost ~$20/kWh • Have an installed system cost of $4100/kW (including the cost of thermal storage and oversized solar field) and an O&M cost of $0.016/kWh, resulting in an LCOE of $0.089/kWh. By 2011, the CSP Subprogram will assist technology development for and validate the performance of a 25-kW commercial dish/Stirling system that will: • Achieve a design point solar-to-electric efficiency of 30% and annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 24% • Have an installed system cost of $4500/kW and O&M cost of $0.05/kWh, resulting in an LCOE of $0.25/kWh5 The LCOE figures described above are based on a standard set of assumptions for financing of a utility-scale IPP project. Note that many non-technical factors can interfere with achieving cost goals, despite achieving technical targets. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the following: • Real cost of capital to the developer • Return on investment required by the project equity partners • Time and cost of obtaining approvals for starting or completing construction • Cost of land needed for the project • Federal, state, and local taxes, such as property taxes, that impact solar technologies much more than fossil- energy technologies. 4 Note that natural gas prices are currently about $8/MMBtu in the southwestern states. The electricity cost targets will increase proportionally with the higher gas prices. 5 These numbers are based on laboratory assumptions and analysis for dish/Stirling system development over the next 5 years. They do not fully reflect industry’s aggressive mass production efforts and the anticipated cost reductions during this time frame. 62

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