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Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies Market Transformation Effects One of implicit objectives of the SGIP is to help conduct market transformation. More specifically, SGIP represents a publicly funded rebate program that is intended to help reduce the price of DG technologies to the point where these technologies are competitive in the market place without incentives. Ideally, SGIP incentives help support an increase in the demand for DG technologies. The increased demand causes increased production, with associated improvements to the efficiency with which the technology is produced and, potentially, an increase in the technology performance. The improvement in efficiency of production theoretically leads to reduced prices and a self-sustaining market place. Although the California market for DG is insufficient in size to be wholly responsible for any market transformation effects, the California DG market can expect that a certain amount of market transformation will occur, particularly at the engineering, design, and construction steps in the value chain. The CPUC Decision on cost-effectiveness methodology directed the development of a cost- effectiveness model that incorporated the qualitative aspects of market transformation. Incorporating market transformation into the cost-effectiveness model required an assessment of the historical cost reductions in DG technologies attributable to increased global production. It required the incorporation of recent historical information on technology prices and sales volumes and an assessment of technology development that may occur in the future. In turn, this information was used to examine how increased volumes of sales in California and around the world may contribute to future changes in prices attributable to improvements in technology or manufacturing processes. To allow the model to make prospective assessments of cost-effectiveness, the model must quantify the market transformation benefit. To do so, we applied the concept of learning curves or experience curves to the different technologies. Learning curves are based on the premise of “learning by doing.” As a new technology is developed and shipped, future units (holding all other inputs constant) will cost less to produce due to improved learning. Based on the maturity of the technology and worldwide distribution, we assumed that costs would decrease at particular rates as the volume of worldwide sales doubled. The evaluation team applied this concept through the development of progress ratios, which were incorporated into the SGIPce model. A progress ratio of 1 represents no change in the cost of the system over time, regardless of how many units are manufactured. In essence, there is no “learning by doing.” A progress ratio of 0.8 indicates that, based on projected worldwide shipment volumes, the cost of the unit would be reduced by 20% with doubling of the worldwide volumes. The progress ratio was applied on a year-by-year basis. The progress ratios and worldwide volume estimates were derived for each examined DG technology based on research including analysis of financial data, material content of the Itron, Inc. 3-9 Critical Inputs and AssumptionsPDF Image | Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies
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