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6 High uncertainty bounds are not unheard of in cost-effectiveness analysis. The California Statewide Potential Study (2007) uses a TRC test of 85% to determine eligibility for program rebates. In general, the uncertainty of energy efficiency measures may be less than the uncertainty of DG technologies due to the shorter expected useful life of energy efficiency measures when compared to DG measures. Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies As shown in Table 5-1, most DG technologies pass or are very close to passing the STRC test in either 2010 or 2016 under the Base Scenario.4 Exceptions include medium or large storage, and gas turbines in the 1,000 kW size range fueled by natural gas, on-site biogas, or directed biogas. Descriptions of all of the technologies evaluated in the SGIPce model can be found in Appendix A. In order to better understand the STRC results, it is helpful to consider the results grouped by combinations of technologies and fuels. Generally, fuel types can be grouped by the following categories: Non-combustion-sourced fuels (e.g., wind, storage, ORC) Natural gas-sourced fuel Directed biogas-sourced fuel On-site biogas-sourced fuel 5.1.1 Non-Combustion-Related Fuel Results Figure 5-1 shows the statewide societal TRC results for non-combustion-sourced fuel DG technologies in 2010 and 2016 without incentives.5 The dark bars reflect the STRC test results for non-combustion-sourced fuel technologies at 2010, while the light bars are the STRC results in 2016. The solid horizontal line on the chart (at an STRC benefit-to-cost ratio value of 100%) represents the threshold typically used for determining if the measure passes the STRC test. However, the STRC results include some uncertainty. Consequently, a dotted horizontal line is drawn at an 80% benefit-to-cost ratio to indicate the STRC results against a lower threshold. The large uncertainty bound is due in part to the relatively high uncertainty associated with utility rate and avoided cost forecasts. DG technologies are long-lived measures, necessitating a 20-year rate and avoided cost forecast from the year of the measure’s installation. Changes in the availability of resources, the valuation of greenhouse gases (GHG), and macroeconomic outcomes (recessions and expansions) can have significant impacts on the realized value of rates and avoided costs in the future.6 4 avoided costs, and a capacity factor of 0.80 for all DG technologies other than wind and storage. The Base Scenario uses the mid avoided cost scenario, the mid forecast of the value of GHG from the E3 5 locations. STRC results are only shown for the commercial sector and for the representative “inland” weather condition Itron, Inc. 5-4 Results and ObservationsPDF Image | Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies
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