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Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies A.2.7 Impacts of Learning Curve on Capital Costs The learning curves show technology cost decreases due to learning-by-doing experience, which improves performance and enables manufacturing to become more streamlined and efficient. The results are summarized below in Table A-12 and Figure A-14. Table A-12: Results of Learning Curve Data on Fuel Cell Costs System Type 2010 Cost Progress Ratio Growth Rate 2020 Cost Residential Non-Residential Non-Residential Electrical Only $12,137 / kW $5,613 / kW $8,406 / kW 80% 62% 82% 26% 82% 26% $2,525 / kW $2,838 / kW $4,251 / kW Figure A-14: Effect of Learning Curves on Fuel Cell Capital Costs $16,000.00 $14,000.00 $12,000.00 $10,000.00 $8,000.00 $6,000.00 $4,000.00 $2,000.00 $- Residential Non-Residential Non-Residential Electrical Only 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year 2016 2018 2020 Overall, learning curves indicate seven-fold reduction in capital costs of residential fuel cells over the next decade; from current costs of $14,000/kW to approximately $2,500/kW by 2020. The more mature non-residential fuel cell systems have an expected three-fold reduction in capital costs over the same time frame. Itron, Inc. Appendix A-25 DG Technologies Installed Cost [$/kW]PDF Image | Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies
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