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Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies A.3.5 Estimating Future Capital Costs According to a report by Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, three classifications have been set up to categorize different points in technological development.30 Mature Technologies are those that have saturated the market, have well-known characteristics, and have limited potential for cost reductions due to learning. Incremental Technologies are those that have niche market commercialization, and do have potential for a learning curve. Radical Technologies are those with no market share, and may never reach significant commercialization, yet have a high learning curve potential. Under these classifications, gas turbines were ranked at the Mature Technology level.31 The report concludes that there will only be a 5% cost of reduction for gas turbines by 2025. Capital Equipment Figure A-21 shows the worldwide output per year for small gas turbine broken out by the size classifications used in the cost-effectiveness model. The production volumes and cumulative quantities can be used to derive a learning curve. Figure A-21: Worldwide Production (MW) per Year for Small Gas Turbines (2006- 2008) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 2006 2007 2008 Year GTle2MW GTg2-5MW 30 Etan Gumerman, Chris Marnay, Learning and Cost Reductions for Generating Technologies in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), Ernest Orland Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (2004). 31 Ibid. Itron, Inc. Appendix A-38 DG Technologies Total Output (MW)PDF Image | Cost-Effectiveness of Distributed Generation Technologies
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