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Assessment of the Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand to the year 0 electricity tariffs required to achieve the financial hurdle After Tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) assumed in the model. That is the rate which sets the free cash flow NPV to zero at the required post tax nominal discount rate. The costs developed here are in New Zealand dollars. They are based on 2007 values, and were internally calibrated against costs being incurred for New Zealand geothermal developments, of which there were a number in progress at that time, and several overseas geothermal projects which were also in progress at that time. This study did not look at greenfield developments greater than 50 MW. The main reason is that a greenfield developer would most likely not be able to attract the funds required for a larger development until some experience with the particular resource was gathered and the risks associated with a larger development were able to be well quantified. Furthermore a greenfield development of over 50 MW may struggle to obtain resource consents in New Zealand, given the conservatism of regulatory authorities and their preference for staged developments, for the same reasons. This contrasts with the current situation in New Zealand where large second stage developments of medium to high temperature resources are occurring at brownfield sites (100 MW at Kawerau and 132 MW at Nga Awa Purua (Rotokawa)). This implies that the anticipated returns on these investments within the current electricity market in New Zealand are attractive – and developers are on record as stating that “Geothermal is the lowest cost source of new generation for New Zealand”7. For several years prior to 2007, geothermal development costs rose steadily in line with global market commodity and equipment price rises. These rises continued until the middle of 2008 when the current global financial crisis occurred and commodity prices fell back to 2003 levels. It is not certain that there is enough market data available yet to determine what is currently happening to geothermal power plant, steamfield and well costs to be able to compare current (2009) costs with the 2007 estimates used in this study. Nevertheless, when the situation becomes clearer it would be useful to update this report to a current (2009) basis, and to include brownfield cases in the range 50 – 100 MW. 1.1 Cautions The costs presented in this document are for greenfield geothermal developments in New Zealand and they are all in 2007 New Zealand dollars. They should be used with discretion and 7 Baldwin, D. (2008). Chief Executive’s Review. http://www.contactenergy.co.nz/web/pdf/financial/ar_20080923_chairman_ceo_review.pdf. Sinclair Knight Merz SKM Cost of Geothermal Power Report (2007 Cost Basis)R1.doc PAGE 3PDF Image | Current Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand
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