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Assessment of the Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand 2006, whereas in 2007 the rate for a large 3500 m capacity drilling rig with one million pound hook load capacity was around NZD 55,000 per day The drilling costs estimated in Section 6.3 were best estimates at current 2007 costs but it needs to be noted that these would need to be updated if cost reliance was required. Such impacts of fossil fuel price increases are negative for geothermal energy, but of more significance is the effective raising of the cost of gas with its direct impact on wholesale electricity price. Increases in drilling costs could be more than offset by increased wholesale electricity prices which would tend to stimulate geothermal power generation development. 7.4.2 Impact of increase in commodity prices22 The pace of infrastructure developments in China over recent years has led to a huge increase in prices of metal commodities. Metals of direct relevance to the power industry are shown in Figure 7.5 and these increased fourfold between 2003 and 2007. SKM is aware of the following impacts of the current global economic conditions on power generation projects in Australasia: In the transmission sector: – between 2003 and 2007 transmission line costs went up by 18 % compared with CPI of 11% – power transformer costs went up by 20% between 2005 and 2007 due to substantial increases in core steel prices for the NZ market, and international freight costs In the generation sector, during 2006 alone: – there was a 3 to 6% increase in the cost of gas turbines – a 6 to 12% increase steam turbines and generator costs, and – a 5% increase for balance of plant – Based on material price influence for turbine, generator and balance of plant, overall plant investment costs are increasing by more than 5% pa, comparedwithCPIaround3% In the Australian construction sector, which the New Zealand sector follows, actual costs between 2003 and 2007 increased at a rate 3 times that predicted by CPI. Regulators favour the use of CPI as an escalation index in that it is simple, recognized and readily audited. However experience in 2003 to 2006 cited here suggested that: CPI is not a reliable indicator of future costs, and Volatility in commodity prices is resulting in significant % increases. Sinclair Knight Merz SKM Cost of Geothermal Power Report (2007 Cost Basis)R1.doc PAGE 49PDF Image | Current Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand
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