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Assessment of the Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand Within this regime of future price uncertainty, SKM formulated the following as a guide to future possible cost trends 2006 to 2008 in the power sector (Table 7.4). Of particular relevance to geothermal developments were the predictions for 10 to 20% increases in establishment costs, civil works and generators, over this period. Table 7-5 SKM Estimates of Future Price Increases in the Australasian Power Industry Category Power transformers Substation bays Establishment / Civil's Transmission OH lines Cables General construction Generation RBA Projected Aust CPI 2006 – 2008* 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% SKM Projected Cost Escalation 16 ‐ 20% 6 ‐ 8% 10 ‐ 15% 8 ‐11% 30 ‐ 50% 12 ‐ 18% 10 – 20% While these projected price movements might have occurred, they would have affected a wide range of technologies. The unit costs calculated in the following pages are based on 2007 costs and so compare with other 2007 costs being quoted by various sources. The accuracy of the 2007 projections in the above table has not been tested in the final version of this study. 7.4.3 Update on impact of changes in commodity prices23 Commodity prices continued to increase throughout 2007 and peaked in mid-2008. Since that time there has been very marked drop in many prices, but there is now evidence of another upward swing in commodity prices. This is illustrated by the following table and figures. Table 7-6 Commodity price movements since 2004 Commodity Price in mid‐2004 Copper 3000 Aluminium 1500 Iron ore .. (Hamersley) 23 Written in late 2009. Sinclair Knight Merz Price in mid‐2006 8000 2250 62 Peak price in 2008 9000 2750 135 Price in early 2009 3000 1100 98 Price in Oct 2009 6000 1700 98 Units USD/tonne USD/tonne USD/tonne SKM Cost of Geothermal Power Report (2007 Cost Basis)R1.doc PAGE 51PDF Image | Current Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand
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