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Assessment of the Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand 8. Financial Modelling A financial model has been applied to the 32 development options presented in the previous sections. The capital costs for the each project option as estimated in Section 7 have been input to this model together with the operations and maintenance costs (O&M) developed in Section 6.8, assessed over the operating life of the project which is assumed to be 30 years. The key outputs from the model runs are estimates of the required “electricity tariff” for each project development option for a variety of financial assumptions of which corporate tax rate, depreciation, inflation and equity content are the most important. These tariff values are equivalent to the year 0 selling prices required to achieve the financial hurdle After Tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) assumed in the model. 8.1 Model Structure The financial model used for this study is a well documented geothermal industry model developed by SKM. A detailed description of the model and its capabilities has been published by Randle (2005). The model is based on a number of interconnected worksheets in a workbook. The overall structure and interrelationships of these are shown in Table 8-1. The main outputs from the model are contained in a Corporate Financial Analysis Worksheet and a Financial-Economic worksheet. The Corporate Financial Analysis Sheet generates a number of standard financial reports. Based mainly on information contained in the Corporate Financial Analysis Sheet, the Financial- Economic Performance Sheet determines a number of standard through-life and annual parameters that are commonly used to determine the financial strength and ongoing wellbeing of the project. This sheet presents the electricity tariff sold in both current (subject to inflation) and real (excluding inflation) terms, a number of other net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) calculations, and also includes a number of other financial parameters. The real electricity tariff is calculated as the PV of the gross income stream from electricity sales (uninflated), divided by the PV of the steam of electricity delivered at the node, both PVs at the defined Discount Rate. Note that the assumed Discount Rate has no impact on this ratio (whereas it does have an impact on the ratio of PV of the through life cost steam (inflated or uninflated), divided by the PV of the steam of electricity delivered at the node (commonly referred to as the levelised cost of generation)). Sinclair Knight Merz SKM Cost of Geothermal Power Report (2007 Cost Basis)R1.doc PAGE 54PDF Image | Current Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand
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