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Assessment of the Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand In a de-regulated electricity generation market such as exists in New Zealand, developers of new merchant plant capacity make their investment decisions based on their perception of the likely future market prices for electricity. If these predictions produce an income stream that meets or exceeds their financial hurdles they may proceed with any given project. In this situation the market decides the appropriate target after-tax real internal rate of return on equity for that project. In a regulated electricity market, where a known and fixed Year 0 tariff must often be set as an enabler for bankability of an investment, tariffs can either be set by letting the market decide through a tariff bidding process or by determining the tariff through agreement on cost inputs (capital, operating and maintenance) and fixing the after-tax real internal rate of return on the capital inputs. Therefore it should not be assumed that the target after-tax real internal rate of return on 100% equity used in this study would be appropriate in other electricity markets, regulated or de- regulated, elsewhere in the world. Each market and electricity generation technology in that market has its own set of risks, uncertainties and competitive tensions, and that market should decide the approach to take to enable electricity development within this context. However it could be argued that New Zealand is a mature market and geothermal is a mature technology and therefore risks might be lower (than elsewhere) and correspondingly, a lower target after-tax real internal rate of return on 100% equity (and thus calculated tariff) might be acceptable to individual developers. There is thus a danger that the tariffs calculated in this study could be used as a guide in other regulated electricity markets. This is not recommended because the risks and uncertainties in other markets will be different to those in New Zealand. 8.3 Modelling Results 8.3.1 Model Outputs Typical Projected Balance Sheets and Projected Cash Flow Statements are presented in Appendix A.2. These typical outputs are presented for Option #1. The Input/Output Sheet in Appendix A.1 also summarizes the following outputs: 1. Cumulative Generation Revenue $ 2. Cumulative Interest income $ 3. Cumulative Project Income $ 4. Cumulative Total Operating Costs $ Sinclair Knight Merz SKM Cost of Geothermal Power Report (2007 Cost Basis)R1.doc PAGE 57PDF Image | Current Costs of Geothermal Power Generation in New Zealand
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