Geothermal Energy

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Geothermal Energy ( geothermal-energy )

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GEOTHERmAl ENERGy resource assessment Critical subsurface conditions for geothermal applications are production temperature, achievable flow rate, and sustainability of the reservoir. TNO has developed various methodologies to assess the performance of geothermal aquifers and enhanced geothermal systems at the exploration stage. These build on holistic approaches for managing financial risks in oil and gas exploration and production. Best practices for exploration work flows are marked by properly staged decision tollgates for exploration activities. These should progressively narrow down pre-drill uncertainties which have a high effect on project performance, with acceptable costs for the exploration. In TNO’s approach, a best practice performance work flow benefits from the following key steps: − Calculation of the distribution of expected production outcome as a function of a quantitative stochastic calculation model (socalled fastmodel). − Stochastic sensitivity analysis to rank the effect of uncertainty in key parameters in terms of risk and hidden upside for project performance. − Apply decision, scenario and option analysis to find optimum exploration and production strategies, capable to mitigate the identified risks and to secure upside potential. The work flow allows to rationally design and optimise exploration and production strategies, in such a way that it is capable to reduce exploration cost and to take full advantage of unexpected upsides of resource potential. Key to performance assessment are the stochastic fastmodels, capable of integrating uncertainties all along the value chain, from subsurface parameters, technical and cost-engineering options, economic and logistic conditions and public acceptance. For an agreed exploration and production strategy, expectation curves for technical and economic key performance indicators, can be analyzed interactively on an asset level or presented in map view for regional assessments. 3

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