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Improved PV efficiencies and lower costs have caused the PV market to expand rapidly to include utility, distributed generation, and building-integrated applications. Also, PV is often the power source of choice for remote applications, based on cost and proven reliability. However, in 2000, a major milestone occurred when grid-connected PV applications decisively surpassed sales for remote applications. Looking at the big picture, in 1976, annual worldwide PV shipments totaled 0.32 MW. But by 2004, annual worldwide PV shipments surpassed 1000 MW for the first time, and annual growth hit a staggering 60%. PV markets have emerged in five key segments, each of which has its own unique characteristics, as summarized in the following: • Grid-Connected Distributed Power: Commercial and Residential—This market provides electricity for primary use in commercial and residential buildings. It has experienced accelerated growth since the 1990s and is currently the fastest-growing market segment for solar energy. Significant growth potential is forecasted for this segment. • Grid-Connected Central Power—This market for large-scale solar power plants feeds into the utility grid and provides electricity for communities, cities, or both. Driven by federal subsidies in the early 1980s, utility-scale solar plants experienced rapid growth that eventually fell off. In terms of technology, considerable overlap exists today between “utility-scale” and “commercial-scale” solar systems, especially for PV power plants. Significant growth potential exists, but achieving this potential will require significant cost reductions in all aspects of PV systems. • Remote Power: Habitation—This secondary medium-value market is driven by the need to provide electricity with higher reliability in areas where access to power from transmission lines is prohibitively expensive. International markets such as in India and China are likely to grow quickly. However, institutional and political barriers must be overcome to realize this market potential. • Remote Industrial Power—Applications such as cellular telephone repeater stations, emergency call boxes, highway sign boards, and other industrial applications currently represent the highest value for solar PV applications, and solar is the dominant power supply of choice for most of these applications. Moderate growth potential continues to be forecasted for these segments as market saturation nears. • Consumer Products—This early high-value market for PV technologies provided electricity for low-power devices including watches, calculators, toys, lights, and other consumer products. These markets grew significantly during the 1970s and 1980s and have achieved saturation. Limited growth potential exists for this market segment. As shown in Fig. 1.1-1, the global PV market is expected to grow rapidly during the next couple of years, reaching a production level of roughly 6 GW by 2010. The grid-connected residential and commercial market sectors are expected to be the primary drivers of growth globally during the next 5–10 years. Most analysts have similar expectations for the United States—with California leading the way, followed by New Jersey and other states that have aggressive solar programs. As noted in the recent U.S. PV Industry Roadmap, the domestic PV industry is expected to parallel the growth in the global PV industry during the next 5–10 years.5 5 U.S. PV Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and Beyond. September 2004. 5PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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