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Fig. 1.1-1 Global PV market forecast. Historical data (1995–2004) from Strategies Unlimited. 2005. “Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments 2004/2005” Report PM-57 (April). Projected data (2005–2010) from M. Rogol and B. Fisher. 2005. “Sun Screen II: Investment Opportunities in Solar Power.” CLSA (July). The technical potential6 for distributed PV in the United States is very large. For example, a recent analysis by Navigant Consulting and Clean Power Research estimated the technical potential for PV on residential and commercial rooftops to be 540 GW in 2003.7 This technical potential is expected to grow over the next 20 years due to growth in new constructions and increased power density (i.e., higher-efficiency PV cells) to 1,000 GW in 2025. Even if the PV industry’s very high annual growth rates in excess of 30% experienced over the past decade can be sustained over the next 10–20 years, there will still be significant room for the PV industry to grow. For example, the U.S. PV Industry Roadmap projects a cumulative installed capacity of 36 GW of PV by 2020 under its “Roadmap” scenario, which includes expanded R&D investments, as well as aggressive federal policies. This capacity is less than 5% of the technical potential for PV. Although the prospects for growth in the PV industry are significant, many factors could influence how rapidly U.S. markets expand. First is the need to realize a significant reduction in the cost of PV systems via R&D, manufacturing improvements, and reduced installation costs. Second, the volatile nature of fossil fuel prices, coupled with increasing concerns over environmental impact from the burning of hydrocarbons, will lower the economic hurdle that solar technologies need to clear. Third, reducing institutional barriers, including the lack of interconnection standards for distributed energy and allowing net-metering provisions, will open market opportunities. Finally, progressive clean energy policies in state and federal legislation will jump-start and accelerate emerging solar markets. Thus, despite significant progress over the past three decades, much research, development, demonstration, and deployment work remains. While industry’s R&D investments have led to significant product and technology improvements, the federal government has also played an important role in helping to bring the solar industry to where it is today. And it will also play an important role in helping solar energy achieve its potential, working with industry to capture market opportunities, and ultimately, enabling solar energy to deliver significant benefits to our society and nation. 6 Technical potential for distributed PV on buildings takes into account material and structural compatabililty, as well as shading and orientation limitations. 7 M. Chaudhari, L. Frantzis, and T. E. Hoff. PV Grid Connected Market Potential in 2010 under a Cost Breakthrough Scenario. Navigant Consulting and Clean Power Research (Study for the Energy Foundation). September 2004. 6PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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