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Technical improvement opportunities (TIOs) are identified for each reference system at the system, subsystem, component, and sub-component level. Each TIO is characterized by a set of key metrics, such as performance, cost, O&M, and reliability. For each reference system, a set of benchmark values for the metrics provides a quantitative representation of the current state of technology. Projected values of the metrics represent potential improvements based on Solar Program R&D efforts. The relative impact of each TIO on the reference system’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is determined by calculating the LCOE using both the benchmark and projected values and comparing each TIO’s contribution to changes in the LCOE. Current values of these metrics are derived from benchmarked data or engineering estimates. A variety of methods, including detailed modeling, engineering estimates, and consensus discussion, are used to identify possible improvements that are realistic to accomplish both within the timeframe of the Multi-Year Program Plan and based on reasonable assumptions for budget allocations.1 System analysis tools and methods described in Sec. 2.3 are used for the LCOE calculations. LCOE has been chosen as the primary system-level metric because it combines all the elements of system cost and performance into a single metric: ¢/kWh or equivalent. Step 2—Assess Research Activity Contribution to Technology Improvement Achieving a target for a particular TIO will often require support from a variety of program elements, where the word “element” is intended to include the terms “activity, project, agreement, and contract,” as used in EERE’s Corporate Planning System (CPS). Solar Program planners use the matrix shown in Fig. 2.2-1 to prioritize program elements in terms of the level of support provided to critical TIOs. Solar Program elements that contribute little to achieving technical targets, such as PE5 in the example in Fig. 2.2-1, are terminated. Those elements contributing the most are given the highest funding and management priority. Step 3—Develop Multi-Year Research Portfolio Having developed a prioritized list of program elements, program planners then formulate the Solar Program’s research plan over the planning horizon, as illustrated in step 3 of Fig. 2.2-1. Planners must identify the set(s) of TIOs and associated program elements that will lead to achieving Solar Program goals. However, before dedicating Solar Program resources to any particular research effort, planners must also consider the following: • Related research efforts under way with funding outside the Solar Program • Technology advances that will occur with market growth • Risk associated with various development paths • Appropriate roles for federally funded R&D. Step 4—Assess Progress The state of the technology is benchmarked, and progress on all Solar Program elements is reviewed periodically, as discussed in Sec. 2.4. Information from these assessments provides feedback to the Solar Program planning process. 2.3 Program Analysis The Solar Program carries out a wide range of analytical activities coordinated through the SDA to program planning. This analysis provides the tools and information for evaluating TIOs based on their ability to contribute to Solar Program technical and economic targets. The analysis includes cost and performance analysis to identify and evaluate the TIOs, and market analysis to set the technical and economic targets and to identify key markets. For cost and performance analysis, an integrated model for systems analysis—the Solar Advisor Model (see Fig. 2.3- 1)—is being developed that will permit analysis of all Solar Program technologies using a common modeling platform. 1 This Multi-Year Program Plan was prepared assuming level budgets of $70 million for PV, $12 million for CSP, and $3 million for SHL. 15PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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