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Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), MARKAL, and other models. The Solar Program is also developing new models for market analysis to support the SDA. The Solar Program’s market analysis has identified the following markets as key to achieving a significant solar 2 : • Electricity and hot water for residential and commercial applications (point of use on the customer side of the meter) • Utility-scale electricity (tied to the electrical transmission and distribution system on the utility side of the meter). contribution to U.S. energy supply The Solar Program’s economic targets (see Table 2.3-1) were determined based on analyzing the key markets and were set based on assessing what the cost of energy needs to be for solar technologies to be competitive in these markets. The current market price range for dispatchable utility power (5.6–7.6 ¢/kWh) is based on the LCOE of new combined-cycle 3 gas turbines (CCGTs) in the Southwest United States. The EIA projects that the cost of new CCGTs will remain fairly constant (in real terms) through 2025.4 Given that the Southwest has exceptional solar resources, combined with solar’s time-production profile, this is a reasonable target market, i.e., to meet intermediate and peaking capacity/generation needs in the Southwest. The value of solar is affected by its intermittent nature. So solar energy plants without storage may not be eligible for capacity payments. Nondispatchable power has a current market price of about 4 ¢/kWh. The target residential price range (8–10 ¢/kWh) and commercial price range (6–8 ¢/kWh) are based on current retail electricity prices. The full range of retail electricity prices is considerably wider: 5.8–16.7 ¢/kWh in the residential sector and 5.4–15.0 ¢/kWh in the commercial sector.5 The narrower ranges chosen here reflect the fact that electricity prices are, on average, higher in the residential sector than in the commercial sector, and most electricity prices fall within a much narrower price band. The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (2005) projects that electricity prices will remain fairly constant (in real terms) through 2025. Table 2.3-1 Solar Market Cost Targets * In many commercial 2 In the past, off-grid applications of PV have provided the high-value markets that have consumed most of the PV module production, worldwide and in the United States. The last few years have seen rapid growth of grid-connected PV applications, especially in the developed countries. These markets offer opportunities for widespread replication of system designs and applications. Off-grid applications remain an important part of the PV marketplace, and continued advances in PV modules will benefit these markets. However, at the system level, the multiplicity of off-grid applications and small market sizes, especially in the United States, do not suggest opportunities for high-impact use of Solar Program resources in achieving our goal of a significant contribution to U.S. energy supply. Additionally, solar hybrid lighting for commercial applications is of interest to the Solar Program. 3 Tip Gas Price = $5/MMBtu, 20-year Internal Rate of Return @ 12%, 15-year Debt @ 6%. 4 5 applications, utility costs are tax deductible. In these cases, the cost of solar energy should be compared to the effective price, considering tax effects. ** SWH cost targets are for saved energy in freezing- climate applications for water heating (2005 and 2011) and space heating (2020). The LEC for an advanced combined-cycle plant is currently 5.6 ¢/kWh at a capacity factor of 50% and 7.6 ¢/kWh at a capacity factor of 25%, under the following assumptions: Plant Size = 400 MWe, Heat Rate = 6422 Btu/kWh, Capital Cost = $599/kWe, Fixed O&M = $10.34/kWyr, Variable O&M = 2.07 mil/kWh, Burner EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (2005). EIA, Electric Power Monthly, January 2005. 17PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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