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Substantial progress was made during the initial development and application of modeling efforts supporting the SDA; this work is summarized in Sec. 2.3 and is explicitly described in multiple sections of Sec. 3. Substantial additional efforts remain to be able to provide a fully integrated and validated tool for Solar Program-wide planning and prioritization. For all three categories (i.e., analysis, benchmarking, and modeling), documentation of the work effort is becoming a significant activity. A guide for using the analysis approach is being developed, benchmarking progress is being published, and the extensive analysis efforts supporting the development of program planning efforts are being documented. 2.7.1 Systems Analysis Framework The major focus will be to further develop the analytical model(s) used to estimate impacts of technology-specific R&D efforts and to establish standard frameworks for collecting and assessing performance and cost data within the technology programs. Existing simulation and modeling tools were assessed, and gaps among existing tools were identified. Future efforts will focus on developing improved capabilities and on filling in the gaps, specifically: • Analytic approaches for troughs, dishes, and SWH will be integrated within the current models to ensure consistency between analyses of multiple technologies. • Improvements in PV modeling, particularly as regards cost issues and building-integrated technologies, will also be made to better simulate the range of system capabilities that exist within this technology and to assess the robustness of our approaches. • Risk and associated uncertainty analysis capabilities will also be added to provide the capabilities to identify the impact of multiple approaches to achieving technical goals and to assess how additional activities can reduce the existing risk of meeting the goals. 2.7.2 Benchmarking and Validation With the recent development of reference systems for each of the solar technologies, a framework now exists for evaluating the cost, performance, and reliability of fielded systems. The benchmarking data developed to date have been effectively used to establish the current ranges of the parameters used for the reference systems. As anticipated, a wide variation exists in the quality and quantity of the data available to support these reference system evaluations. For example, there is a wide variation in the costs identified for installing residential PV systems. Such gaps will be filled by additional data gathering and assessment. Needed technical efforts include the following: • Updates of the baseline data for the reference systems will be provided regularly through data collection undertaken by the technology programs. These updates are essential to demonstrate and document progress toward meeting the Solar Program’s long-term goals for each technology. • Emphasis will be on field data that can assess system-integration impacts, manufacturing costs, installation costs, and other indirect costs for multiple types of systems. • Best practices (including practices in Germany and Japan) for residential PV system installation will be developed to more firmly establish targets for supporting technical R&D. • Benchmark data will be obtained on new CSP trough and dish deployment efforts to better quantify many of the cost elements, especially those related to O&M, where demonstrated reliability improvements are the key to reducing costs. 2.7.3 Analysis and Impact Assessments A primary activity within the systems-driven approach is developing and evaluating technical and economic targets for the systems considered in the Solar Program. The targets reflect market requirements, assessments of out-year technology costs, and related estimates of penetration into existing and new markets. Measures of success (e.g., LCOE, 23PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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