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3.0 Technology Research Plan This section presents the technical plan for the major R&D areas in the Solar Program. A separate technical plan will be provided for each subprogram: Sec. 3.1 Photovoltaics, Sec. 3.2 Concentrating Solar Power, and Sec. 3.3 Solar Heating and Lighting. The details of each subprogram element will be examined with markets, program history, goals, approaches, reference systems, challenges and barriers, milestones, and decision points. 3.1 Photovoltaics 3.1.1 PV Industry and Market Overview Photovoltaic panels produce direct-current (DC) electricity directly from absorbed photons from sunlight. Power PV panels typically come in one of two forms: flat-plate PV panels, which use sunlight directly to produce electricity, and concentrating PV (CPV) panels, which use concentrated sunlight to produce electricity. Flat-plate PV panels are typically manufactured in units (modules) that range from 5 to 300 watts-peak (Wp) of output. CPV modules are larger and range from 500 Wp to 40 kWp. Although a number of applications use the direct current from the modules, the fastest-growing markets for PV use panels that are integrated into systems with power-conditioning equipment that converts the DC electricity from the panels to alternating current (AC). These systems are then interconnected to the utility grid and are referred to as grid-tied systems. The modularity of PV has opened a wide variety of markets for this technology, with residential grid-tied, commercial grid-tied, and central power generation being the market foci for Solar Program planning purposes. The PV industry has been expanding very rapidly during the past decade. Global PV production increased from about 60 MW in 1994 to just over 1 GW in 2004 (see Fig. 3.1.1-1 for a breakdown of recent PV shipments by country/ region, and Fig. 3.1.1-2 for a breakdown in market share of each module technology). These numbers translate into an average annual growth of 33% for the past decade. During this period, the most rapidly growing PV markets were for grid-connected PV systems installed on residential and commercial buildings. In essence, during the past decade, the PV marketplace has gone through a dramatic shift in emphasis from remote industrial and remote home systems (accounting for 60% of the market in 1994) to grid-tied systems (accounting for 80% of systems in 2004). The PV industry is expected to continue its rapid expansion over the next decade, with a continuing shift toward grid-tied markets.1 Much of this growth has been driven by PV-targeted subsidies in Germany, Japan, and a number of U.S. states (e.g., California, Arizona, New Jersey). A consequence of this rapid growth has been the emergence of a solar- grade silicon supply shortage. (Solar-grade silicon is a key input for crystalline PV cells/modules, the dominant PV technology in the marketplace today.) This supply shortage, which is believed to be temporary with new supplies coming on line throughout 2006 and 2007, has created a short-lasting opportunity for thin-film PV and concentrator technologies, which do not use polysilicon feedstock, to accelerate their move from the laboratory into manufacturing and large-scale production. 1 U.S. PV Industry Roadmap 2004, Strategies Unlimited 2005; SunScreen Report 2004 27PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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