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(i.e., distributed grid-tied markets), the PV Subprogram has broadened its goals and has set a range of market-specific targets.4 As shown in Table 3.1.3-1, the PV Subprogram has defined targets for three key market segments: residential, commercial, and utility-scale markets.5 The target ranges in Table 3.1.3-1 are based on our assessment of what PV technology needs to achieve to be competitive in each of these markets. Table 3.1.3-1 Long-Term Targets for Levelized PV Energy Cost and Installed System Price by Market Segment The target utility price range (5–7 ¢/kWh in 2020) is based on the LCOE of new combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in the Southwest.6 The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005 projects that the cost of new CCGTs will remain fairly constant (in real terms) through 2025. Given that the Southwest has exceptional solar resources, combined with solar’s time-production profile, this is a reasonable target market, i.e., to meet intermediate and peaking capacity/generation needs in the Southwest. However, because PV is not firm (without storage), it may only get part of the capacity credit.7 Over the next 10–15 years, as PV begins to penetrate the utility market (as the cost of PV systems decline), the advantages of being highly coincident with peak demand in key target markets,8 as well as being clean, easy to permit, site, and build quickly in relatively small increments, will make PV more valuable from a systems perspective. In the long term (beyond 2020), to achieve widespread use, i.e., beyond 5%–10% of total electricity generation capacity, PV will need to be integrated with storage, building energy management techniques, hydrogen production, or other complementary technologies/approaches to help address intermittency. Five-Year Performance Objectives To work toward its 2020 targets, the PV Subprogram will partner with the PV industry over the course of this Multi- Year Program Plan (2007–2011) to conduct the R&D necessary, and to implement the progress into commercially available products that result in the following: • 16%-efficient crystalline-silicon module that can be produced at a direct manufacturing cost of $260/m2 ($1.60/Wp) • 10%-efficient CdTe module that can be produced at a direct manufacturing cost of $90/m2 ($0.90/Wp) • 12%-efficient CIGS module that can be produced at a direct manufacturing cost of $170/m2 ($1.40/Wp) 4 The Solar Program’s most recent Multi-Year Technical Plan (2004) included long-term targets for utility-scale applications (5–7 ¢/kWh) and residential applications (8–10 ¢/kWh). Here, a long-term target for the commercial sector (6–8 ¢/kWh) is also included. 5 The move to a range of market-specific targets increases the need to develop consistent and transparent methods of translating installed system price (in $/kW) into levelized energy cost (in ¢/kWh). The Solar Program is developing the tools and methods to be consistent and transparent with its systems-driven approach. 6 The levelized energy cost for under the following assumptions: Plant Size = 400 MWe, Heat Rate = 6422 Btu/kWh, Capital Cost = $599/kWe, Fixed O&M = $10.34/kWyr, Variable O&M = 2.07 mil/kWh, Burner Tip Gas Price = $5/MMBtu, 20-Year Internal Rate of Return @ 12%, 15-Year Debt @ 6%. 7 The effective load carrying capacity of PV systems (i.e., the amount of capacity a PV system can be relied on to displace when added to an existing system) has been estimated at 50%–70% in locations with good insolation and summer peaks driven by air conditioning (Perez et al., 1996. Photovoltaics Can Add Capacity to the Utility Grid. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO). 8 Key target markets include areas with high effective load carrying capacity, such as southern California. Some areas, such as parts of Florida, where annual peak demands are driven more by winter 33PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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