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3.1.6 PV Technical (Non-Market) Challenges/Barriers and Goals Analysis of the reference system leads to identifying technical improvement opportunities (TIOs) to overcome barriers related to cost, performance, and reliability. Figure 3.1.6-1 shows the TIOs at two high levels, starting at Tier 1 and further divided in Tier 2. This figure also shows the impacts of these TIOs on key metrics as determined by systems modeling that will be described below. Analyses of the impacts of different TIOs on overall cost of the energy produced were conducted in some cases at additional levels of detail. Numerical values in these analyses are determined to reflect today’s “best practice” values and “best estimates” for future years, such as 2011 and 2020. These metrics are then aggregated to determine overall performance, cost, and reliability projections for PV systems of the future. The Solar Advisor Model (SAM) allows parametric sensitivity studies around these and other Tier 1 variables to determine overall LCOE and a variety of other outputs for market- based comparisons. A brief overview discussion of the Tier 1 TIOs follows. Fig. 3.1.6-1 List of TIOs and associated metrics. Shading indicates degree of impact each TIO has on each metric and overall system LCOE for the residential reference system: red (dark) is high; yellow (light) is medium; no shading is low. During the last two to three years, the Solar Program has focused much effort on collecting and analyzing data related to the performance and costs of PV systems in the field, as well as on developing new analytical tools to determine the relative merits of different technology pathways. This section highlights the results of these efforts by discussing future performance, cost, and reliability targets for the different components and subcomponents within the technologies. These targets are determined by investigating the individual and cumulative impacts of technological advances within the different market sectors under study. One important caveat: although great effort has been made to ensure the quality of data and assumptions used in these analyses, perhaps more important than the specific numbers portrayed here are the relative improvements shown. 36PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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