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The general conclusion of these sensitivity studies is that achieving targets in module performance and cost have the greatest impact on LCOE. As noted above, the Solar Program has historically placed an emphasis on R&D in these areas. To assess the overall impact of improving the key module metrics from 2005 values to the 2011 projections, initial studies (which will continue to be updated and validated) were conducted by inputting all 2011 values for efficiency, cost, lifetime, and reliability into SAM to calculate the overall change in LCOE. The results of the 2011 module projections on LCOE are shown in Fig. 3.1.6-2. In these studies, all inverter, BOS, and financing assumptions were maintained at their 2005 levels so module impacts could be isolated. (For these reasons, the LCOE seen in Fig. 3.1.6-2 for c-Si will not match the LCOE seen in Fig. 3.1.6-6 for c-Si. In that case, module and BOS components were set to 2011 targets. Financing assumptions were held constant in all cases.) The orange line is the 2005 LCOE for the c-Si reference system. Fig. 3.1.6-2 LCOE values for different module technologies based on 2011 targets for key module metrics with BOS parameters left at their 2005 levels. In all the above SAM studies, module lifetime was set at 30 years for each technology’s 2005 benchmark. For c-Si modules, sufficient field data exist to substantiate this number. Thin-film modules, however, have not been commercially deployed for a sufficient time for data to be collected that would support a 30-year lifetime assertion. Because of this inexperience in fielded thin-film module lifetimes and the associated uncertainty (commercial warranties are usually 20 years versus 25 years for c-Si), the studies were conducted using 30-year 2005 lifetimes and 35-year 2011 lifetimes to allow for a more direct comparison on efficiency and cost between thin films and c-Si modules. Figure 3.1.6-3 shows the LCOE sensitivity to module lifetime for a thin-film system. 39PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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