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40 Fig. 3.1.6-3 Impact of module lifetime on LCOE. Figue 3.1.6-3 shows the very significant importance of module lifetime with respect to LCOE. As noted, the uncertainty in module lifetimes introduces significant uncertainty in the LCOE calculations. Although uncertainties in the module lifetime have small impacts for longer lifetimes (at a 30-year lifetime, ±3 years results in a 0.9 ¢/kWh span), uncertainties in lifetime are more important for shorter lifetimes (at a 15-year lifetime, ±3 years results in a 4.9 ¢/kWh span). This indicates that an important activity for the Solar Program is to work with the thin-film industry and systems installers to better understand thin-film reliability and lifetime. In addition, any new module designs for either thin film or c-Si should be carefully evaluated through accelerated life testing to ensure that lifetime and reliability are not compromised. In addition to the Tier 1 sensitivity studies shown in the table above for commercial rooftop systems, selected analysis was also conducted at the Tier 2 level. As an example of how the SDA is being employed to explore this level of detail, Fig. 3.1.6-4 shows the results of an analysis that explores the contributions of the materials, labor, and other cost improvements for the discrete elements of c-Si module production. When modeled at the Tier 1 level, improvements in module price based on 2011 targets resulted in decreasing the LCOE from the baseline of 18.3 ¢/kWh to 15.1 ¢/kWh—a 3.2 ¢/kWh reduction. The contribution from each c-Si element to the LCOE reduction was then calculated by looking at a breakdown of the Tier 2 target costs for 2011. The “Other” category shown includes manufacturing supplies, equipment maintenance, manufacturing spares, utilities associated with manufacturing, cost of manufacturing floor space, and equipment depreciation.PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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