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16 Cost of Energy Technologies World Energy Council 2013 Policy & financing Onshore wind new-build in the US is incentivised by the production tax credit (PTC), which is currently due to expire at the end of 2013 after a one year extension in late 2012. Legislative brinksmanship with the tax credit in late 2012 prompted a rush of new installations before December – projects that would otherwise have been built in 2013, leading to a forecasted decline in that market. Financing costs in the US are on par with those in Western Europe: 250–300bps over LIBOR for term loans accounting for 70–80% of project costs at tenors of 8–10 years. In Europe Germany, Denmark, Spain and the UK are the major markets for onshore wind, but the strong government support of the past has been wavering, particularly in Spain. Develop- ers would perhaps be reassured by clearer policies and greater financial visibility. In Europe, the capacity addition tempo is driven primarily by the attractiveness of government-set feed- in-tariffs, which have been under pressure as austerity measures have been implemented across broad swaths of the continent. Overly-generous support levels in the past have incen- tivised the construction of projects that would otherwise be very uneconomic. Even recently developed markets aren’t immune: Romania slashed its allocation of green certificates to all clean energy projects in June, causing forecasted installations from 2014 forward to fall pre- cipitously. Financing costs in the more stable economies of Western Europe fall in the range of 250–300bps over LIBOR for increasingly shorter ‘semi-perm’ loans of 5–8 years. This type of shorter-term loan is a reflection of the banking regulatory environment there, which is caus- ing lenders to shorten the duration of the loans and encourage frequent refinancings. In the less-stable markets in Southern and Eastern Europe borrowers can expect to pay 500bps or more over LIBOR as a reflection of high sovereign risk. China’s 2015 wind capacity target of 100GW is likely to be surpassed to the tune of 30GW to a total of 128GW installed, of which 113GW is forecasted to be grid-connected. Grid-con- nection can be problematic and delays plague the project pipeline. Current estimates peg delays at between 6–24 months/ project with nearly 60% of delays closing in on two years. Grid curtailment issues and financing availability are the main culprits. In South and Central America wind deployment is focused in Brazil where a government auction scheme has encouraged a recent boom in deployment. Brazilian wind has also benefitted from access to affordable financing from the Brazilian Development Bank, BNDES. Other emerging wind markets in the region, such as Chile and Argentina, have seen small amounts of installed capacity and suffer from relatively expensive equipment and financing costs. The least developed region for onshore wind is the Middle East and Africa where South Africa, Israel and Kenya lead in terms of installed capacity. South Africa has over 100MW financed, but financing costs can run upwards of 1000bps over LIBOR. Offshore wind Almost 95% of the roughly 4GW of global installed offshore wind capacity is situated in the waters off Europe’s western coast. Within that region the focal points are the UK and Ger- many. As a result, offshore wind LCOEs are a function of the costs of just over 50 projects located in that region, and a thorough understanding of how costs differ in other regions will likely result only from additional capacity deployment. This is set to change in the coming years as China, South Korea and other new entrants expand their installed bases. Nearly 2GW of offshore wind came online in 2012, 93% of which was in European waters. By 2020PDF Image | Cost of Energy Technologies
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