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18 350 Cost of Energy Technologies World Energy Council 2013 Solar PV Global installed capacity for PV has historically been dominated by Europe where govern- ment incentive schemes have spurred large deployment, for example in Germany and Italy. From 2007–2011 Europe accounted for 70–80% of total installations. That fell to 50% in 2012 and will continue to decline, likely to 20% by 2015, as China and Japan become the growth markets. The last few years have witnessed more or less consistent declines in the cost of modules and underlying components, pushing LCOEs lower and lower in a market increasingly dom- inated by Chinese suppliers. PV economics differ substantially between plants >1MW and smaller distributed retail or commercial rooftop plants. For this report we concentrate only on larger projects. Figure 6 Levelised cost of PV electricity over time, developed market average (USD/MWh) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 250 c-Si tracking c-Si 300 200 150 100 50 Thin film 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feed-in tariffs driven growth combined with a rapid fall in module prices have made solar PV more competitive over recent years, spurring a boom in the sector. This rapid growth has prompted governments to scale back feed-in tariffs to avoid budget overshoot. In markets and locations with more expensive power, such as in parts of Germany, com- panies are now finding it more cost-effective to use the power from solar cells themselves – referred to as auto-consumption – rather than claim the feed-in tariff. Installation continues there: the country installed nearly 800MW in Q1 2013 and over 1,000MW in Q2 2013 even as feed-in tariffs for new installations fell – driven in part by the trend towards auto-consumption. With the diminishing prospects in Western Europe attention is now focused on China and Japan, the new main drivers of the global PV market. In China, solar PV has relatively few barriers to growth. It is competitive with conventional energy for commercial users but is more expensive for residential consumers. Here, most of the 35GW capacity target for 2015 will therefore be met by large-scale, >1MW installations and distributed generation in the commer- cial sector. A 2020 target of 50GW solar PV generation exists, supported by a national feed-in tariff and a system of subsidies. A boom in solar installations is underway in Japan, with the country’s new generous feed-in tariffs making solar PV a very attractive prospect. The program has incentivised a large build there, with nearly 800MW of approved capacity as of early Q2.PDF Image | Cost of Energy Technologies
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