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World Energy Council 2013 Cost of Energy Technologies The US solar market is relatively fragmented at present due to a lack of federal level coordi- nation, ambition and visibility of policy. Few large-scale projects are currently in the pipeline and the focus has shifted to distributed capacity in key markets like California. Deployment is dependent on a tax incentive program that is set to drop significantly in 2017 and expire three years later. Crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV without tracking The global nature of the module market means that a project with similar characteristics in Europe and North America can end up costing roughly the same amount to operate. However in Asia, projects in India and China have been able to drop below the USD100/ MWh mark due to access to cheaper modules and equipment and lower O&M costs. There is very little deployment of large-scale PV in the Middle East, Africa and South & Central America. Exceptions exist for South Africa – where a new tender program is boosting deployment – and Saudi Arabia – where a newly announced tender round is seeking to fund up to 800MW by the end of the year. One important cost trend is the ability for module manufacturers to sell products at higher prices in emerging markets which benefit from aggressive feed-in tariffs like Japan and South Africa. The bulk of the capital costs for large-scale PV is attributable to modules, followed by balance of plant costs including mounting and electrical equipment. Inverters account for about 10% of total costs. The most recent BNEF module price index for June 2013 places the values for multicrystalline modules for immediate delivery in Europe at USD0.78/W and in China at USD0.70/W and below. Recent industry turmoil resulting from a chronic product oversupply has led to a significant number of exits from the cell, wafer and module manufacturing industry and has subsequently brought system costs down 57% from 2010 levels. While the industry remains in oversupply prices have leveled and it’s unlikely that these types of cost declines will continue into the future. The wide LCOE ranges for standard PV without tracking reflect major differences in capacity factors based on geography. In Germany a generous feed-in-tariff scheme spurred significant growth in PV installations even in areas with low solar resource. This has driven the upper end of the LCOE range for Europe to over USD600/MWh for projects in northern Europe built in areas with capacity factors as low as 9%. Projects in sunny southern Europe are able to obtain capacity factors of upwards of 18–19%, bringing down LCOEs to just over USD100/MWh. Low Indian and Chinese LCOEs are driven by a combination of low CAPEX and high qual- ity resource availability. The Chinese domestic market has perhaps the lowest module costs globally as the hyper-competitive market and low labor costs drives down prices. Modules made exclusively for the domestic market can be significantly cheaper than those for export, especially if the product is from a lower tier manufacturer. A fully built up unit in China can go for USD1.4m/MW or less. If that is coupled with a well-sited project in high-sun Inner Mongolia for a capacity factor of 20% or higher, LCOEs of USD80 can be realised. Indian projects run at similar costs, if not slightly higher at around USD1.5m/MW. Projects in high sun areas like Rajasthan and Gujarat are able to hit capacity factors of 19–20% with LCOEs as low as USD85/MWh. In developed markets a large disparity exists between CAPEX costs in Germany – the key western European market – and the US. The highly competitive and efficient German market has put downward pressure on margins for EPC contracts and a streamlined permitting and siting process means lower upfront costs. This leads to lower total CAPEX versus the US, where margins are still robust and obtaining permits can be a large administrative burden. 19PDF Image | Cost of Energy Technologies
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