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World Energy Council 2013 Cost of Energy Technologies Methodology Technology maturity This report includes a study of all technologies that are beyond the pilot phase. Electricity generating technologies follow a similar path to other technologies: they follow a develop- ment curve that begins with pilot projects and leads to demonstration, commercialisation and full-commercial deployment. Wave and tidal technologies are the least mature of those studied in this report, and are currently being demonstrated at various test sites globally: the very first commercial projects have only been announced recently. Many of the renewable technologies in this report have reached commercialisation, but have yet to become cost competitive with more well established technologies gives a rough outline of the maturities of the various technologies that will eventually be covered by this report. Use of empirical data The calculation of LCOEs in this preliminary report is based on empirical data wherever pos- sible. The data includes capital costs, operating costs, the cost of finance and load factors – either experienced or projected, and they are from actual projects that have been or are currently being built. Where actual project cost data is incomplete the analysis uses Bloomb- erg New Energy Finance’s trend analysis on technology and financing costs. The use of empirical data is valuable because it uses data from real projects. It can however produce LCOEs that may seem extremely high or unrealistic because subsidies government support mechanisms may have incentivised the construction of plants in otherwise unsuita- ble locations. Instances of this are most prevalent for onshore wind and PV projects where developers have built projects in what would normally be sites with uneconomically low resource availability that leads to low capacity factors, one of the key drivers of LCOEs. Our central estimate for the most well developed markets for a given technology is a reflec- tion of the most likely cost for a project, while in less developed markets the central estimate is an average of LCOEs for projects in that region. Data sources For regions where a technology’s costs are widely understood and there are many relevant project examples, LCOEs are based on information from actual projects. This mainly applies to onshore wind and solar PV in the key geographies such as Western Europe, the US and China. For those technologies which are less mature and have few examples of actual installations in the region from to calculate LCOEs, cost ranges are based on the disclosed project costs in order to reflect the actual LCOEs of operational projects in each region. As far as possible the analysis is based on data from projects where investment or purchase contracts have been completed. This universe of indicative costs is sourced from a database of projects provided by a combination of BNEF’s proprietary clean energy project database and infor- mation provided by WEC network members. For emerging technologies deployment is limited to a small number of projects or to certain specific regions. In these cases LCOE ranges may be difficult or impossible to accurately assess, but where possible we have attempted to determine reasonable estimates based 39PDF Image | Cost of Energy Technologies
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