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On the basis of the restricted sample for which cost data was available, on average, between USD 1.25 and 3 million is spent per MW of installed capacity (Figure 3.9). 72% of projects fall in this cost range. This is consistent with the expected high upfront costs associated with wind energy technology, and the range of costs observed on global markets of between EUR 1.1 million and EUR 2.25 million per MW (International Energy Agency, 2009). Exceptionally high per unit capital costs are observed in smaller scale operations, for example, the 0.3 MW pilot Inhambane in Mozambique which cost the equivalent of about USD 5 million per MW. We observe a negative correlation of -0.27 between per unit capital cost and installed capacity (Figure 3.10). At the aggregate cost level, no clear global trend over time in costs per unit of installed capacity can be deduced from a statistical analysis which does not control for operation size and the costs of ancillary infrastructure such as transmission lines and access roads. Yet, there are few markets where trends can be deduced – Egypt, South Africa and Morocco – where wind farms are located in similar geographic areas, and there is a large enough sample. We find that costs per unit are on marginally decreasing trend only in Egypt. In South Africa, the cost per unit MW for planned projects appears to be higher than the unit cost for completed pilots; while in Morocco the trend is similar but not strong (Figure 3.11). Figure 3.9: Distribution of Costs per Unit of Installed Figure 3.10: Capital Costs per Unit of Installed Capacity Capacity 25 20 15 10 5 0 0123456 USD million per MW 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 100 200 300 400 Installed Capacity per Project (MW) Source: Authors’ analysis Source: Authors’ analysis There are several possible explanations: different levels of maturity of the markets especially when comparing Egypt to South Africa, and an economies-of-scale advantage for Egypt (a typical pipeline project in Egypt is about 2.5 times as large as a typical planned project in South Africa). In Egypt, several projects have been planned or implemented in close proximity (for example, the 8 and 6 individual projects at Zafarana and the Gulf of Zayt wind farms respectively); such occurrences significantly reduce the need for new ancillary infrastructure. Meanwhile, South Africa’s projects are located in different coastal areas of the country, hence the need to integrate new ancillary infrastructure in the projects. It is also important to note that there could be mispricing in the current bids for IPP procured wind energy projects (especially in South Africa), given that most projects were at the first bidding stage which focuses on technical aspects, and had not yet competed on price. Unit costs can therefore be expected to stabilize in the medium term. These cost trends are also closely linked to the profile of project developers in the three countries: government-sponsored projects being least expensive on average, followed by PPPs, then private 13 Frequency USD million per MWPDF Image | Development of Wind Energy in Africa
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