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4.0 Explaining Market Development Trends The patterns identified in Section 3 could possibly be explained by external forces such as conventional foreign direct investment drivers, internal macroeconomic and social considerations, or global considerations such as climate change. In this section, we explore the extent to which these factors have affected the adoption of wind-based electricity generation, starting from the assumption that adequate wind energy potential exists. First, we ran the following hypothesis tests non-parametrically15 to test the extent to which the wind sector has been influenced by the pursuit of new markets for a growing wind technology manufacturing sector in OECD countries: i. The correlation between the origin of the ODA and of the wind turbines used in pilot projects. ii. The correlation between the origin of ODA in pilot project and that of private investments in the sector through project sponsorship, development or operation of commercial scale projects. Results show that the origin of ODA and that of wind turbines adopted in pilot projects is weakly correlated. A weak correlation is also observed between the origin of ODA for pilot and that of wind turbines adopted in commercial operations. There is almost no correlation between the origin of development assistance for pilot projects and the origin of private investment flows into commercial operations. This outcome is consistent with the post-2011 adoption of ‘untied aid’ frameworks in OECD countries predominant as donors, lenders and investors in this industry. Other considerations appear to be stronger drivers of the observed trends in developing the wind energy potential in Africa. These include the physical attributes of wind energy, economic, environmental and climate change considerations, as well as aspects related to the regulatory environment in the host country. 4.1 Technical Considerations Wind energy is intermittent, which means that it is not continuously available due to exogenous factors. The result is irregular electricity output from wind power plants. In addition, wind is non-storable, in contrast to other renewables such as water which can be stored and dispatched in response to demand. These two features imply that wind energy does not make good base load capacity – the capacity which must be continually available to meet the minimum demand of all users connected to an electricity grid. This capacity dictates volume of new grid connections. The issue of base load capacity is important in the context of most national grids which are “demand- driven”, thus require stable base load capacity to meet the continuous electricity needs of users connected to the grid. Failure to fully meet these needs at any moment would trigger a system failure. Moreover, integrating large wind-based electricity flows into the grid may require a grid overhaul. This pertains to both grid planning (power plant dispatch systems) and resilience of the network to peaks and troughs in electricity flows from the wind farms. Again, conventional “demand-driven” grids make this integration particularly complex. Grid integration also requires efficient back-up plants to regulate volatility in electricity flows. Given the state of African national grids, these considerations present a major barrier to the development of wind energy on the continent. 15 Non-parametric tests are based on sample data without imposing assumptions on statistical form of the full population. This is appropriate given that there are not enough degrees of freedom to support generalizable parametric results. 18PDF Image | Development of Wind Energy in Africa
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