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the need for back-up capacity. The main use for wind energy is to replace output from fossil fuels and other storable energy resources. In principle, this serves the dual purpose of lowering operation costs of the electricity grid, and enhancing availability of other sources such as hydro power plants. Because wind power plants, in essence, do not contribute base load capacity, they cannot be the primary basis for electrification programs targeting to add more users to the grid. Therefore countries trying to increase access rates are unlikely to choose wind. Indeed, the development of wind energy capacity in Africa has been following electricity consumption trends more than resource endowment levels. Figure 4.5 shows that those countries with higher access rates are leading the way in wind energy development. This is translated into stronger political commitments from energy-intensive countries to renewable energies. For instance, Egypt committed to produce 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, with South Africa and Morocco having announced similar goals. 4.3 Climate Change Considerations From an environmental perspective, wind energy is of interest because it is both renewable and clean. Here we explore the extent of the incentive for African countries to achieve the latter objective. The first test is determining the expected environmental benefits of wind energy. As shown in Figure 4.6, wind based power plants produce almost no greenhouse gas emissions directly. However, in evaluating the climate change effects of wind energy, one needs to take a holistic approach that looks at both the direct and indirect effects. We already discussed the physical features of wind energy and their implications in terms of back-up plants. The variability and intermittency of wind energy implies carbon emissions that are commensurate with the frequency at which back-up power plants are activated to stabilize the grid. Back-up measures require plants which can be dispatched quickly and run on a stable fuel resource. For these reasons heavy fuel oil and gas make the best back-up energy resources for wind. We show in Figure 4.6 that accounting for the indirect emissions from these back-up plants, wind based power generation remains attractive from a ‘clean’ energy perspective. 19 Figure 4.6: Greenhouse Gas Emission from Electricity Generation 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Direct (lower bound) Direct (upper bound) Indirect (lower bound) Indirect (upper bound) 19 We already mentioned that wind based electricity generation in the context of conventional electricity grids requires base load capacity supplied by a more stable energy resource. Aside from fossil fuels which are the largest polluters in the electricity generation mix, base load capacity could be provided by nuclear or hydro power plants which are overall less polluting. For African countries, fossil fuels and hydro make up most of the base load capacity, with nuclear based power generation almost non-existent (the exception is South Africa with installed nuclear electricity generation capacity of 1.8 GW). Base load capacity emissions are often not reflected in indirect emission for wind power plants, but it is important to bear them in mind. 22 Source: World Nuclear Association Coal Gas Hydro Solar PV Wind Nuclear grams of CO2 equivalent / kWhPDF Image | Development of Wind Energy in Africa
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