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5.0 Conclusion and Policy Implications 5.1 Conclusion The paper draws several conclusions based on discussions of the structural characteristics, development trends and challenges faced by the wind energy market in Africa. Using a hand-collected comprehensive sample of 94 wind energy projects over the period 1980 and 2010, it is observed that Africa’s wind energy capacity increased twelvefold over the last two decades to stand at 1.1 GW in 2011. While the annual growth rate of Africa’s installed capacity was almost twice as much as that reported for global capacity over the period 2000-2010, it remains similar to the growth rate reported for global capacity at the early stages of development for the global market. This growth was achieved mainly through a phased approach, reflecting countries’ lack of familiarity with the technology and insufficient geo-referenced resources at early stages of market development and limited public resources to undertake large scale projects in more mature markets. North Africa is currently leading in terms of installed capacity while South Africa is poised to be the fastest growing market based on the number of prospective investors in the sector. Interestingly, North African countries followed different paths to develop their markets. While Egypt and Tunisia had a public sector-led model, Morocco relied more on private sector initiatives. The paper shows that wind markets in Africa are small both in absolute terms- measured by installed capacity – and in relative terms – measured by their contribution to the energy generation mix. While significant growth in installed capacity is expected, driven by the increasing number of ongoing and planned projects as well as increasing capacity of individual projects, we show that wind-energy contribution to energy consumption is expected to remain unchanged. In other words, growth in wind energy production in Africa is not expected to outpace growth in total generation capacity. Another interesting feature of African markets documented in the paper is the high level of concentration with 3 African countries, namely Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia capturing 73% of completed projects and 96% of total installed capacity at end-2010. Concentration is also observed for ongoing and planned projects whereby Egypt, Morocco and South Africa collectively account for 83% of total expected capacity. The paper also shows that public utilities such as NREA (Egypt), ONE (Morocco) and STEG (Tunisia) are the dominant players in the sector while private players remain heterogeneous and include both international companies, mainly from France, Spain and Netherlands, and local players whose core business lies sometimes outside of the energy sector. Cost and financing data available in our database show that non-concessional resources from DFIs accounted for about 59% of the cost of installed capacity on the continent. The amount spent per MW of installed capacity is consistent with levels observed in global markets. The paper also shows that concessional funding is being phased out and replaced by non-concessional investments from bilateral and multilateral DFIs, as well as commercial investments. What’s more, the paper reports the absence of a correlation between sources of ODA for pilot projects and sources of private investment into commercial operations implemented at later stages, suggesting that ODA is not particularly used to pursue new markets. The second part of the paper explains why African countries have been lagging behind despite the continent’s important wind potential. It shows that intermittency and output variability are two 26PDF Image | Development of Wind Energy in Africa
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