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existence of a geothermal anomaly (for example, hot springs, flowing wells, anomalously high heat flow) and the assumed recovery factor, which incorporates an estimate of the effective reservoir permeability and porosity. Reservoir models and production histories are generally consistent with the predictions of the volume method when the reservoir volume and the spatial distribution of permeability are well-constrained (for example, Parini and Riedel, 2000; Williams, 2004). Potential problems arise when both the volume of a reservoir and its flow properties must be estimated. Many geothermal reservoirs are dominated by fracture porosity, which can be characterized by high permeabilities but relatively low fluid volumes. In addition, fracture permeability is sensitive to relatively rapid (in geologic time) temporal variations in the state of stress and fluid chemistry. In the USGS national assessment of low-temperature geothermal resources, Reed (1983) applied models for the recovery of heat and fluid from low-temperature sedimentary reservoirs using constraints on drawdown at production wells. Production- related pressure declines have posed significant problems in geothermal reservoirs, and, despite the risk of thermal breakthrough, injection has become a common procedure for sustaining production (Axelsson, 2003). Consequently, any estimate of reservoir production potential should evaluate longevity from the perspective of injection and eventual thermal breakthrough. Models for the recovery of heat from uniformly porous, homogeneous, and liquid-phase reservoirs using injection indicate that Rg can reach values of 0.5 or higher (for example, Nathenson, 1975; Garg and Pritchett, 1990; Sanyal and Butler, 2005). To allow for uncertainties in the distribution of permeability in a producing geothermal reservoir, the resource estimates in Circular 790 were based on a Monte Carlo uncertainty model with a triangular distribution for Rg with a most-likely value of 0.25 and a range from 0 to 0.5 (Muffler et al, 1979). More recent analyses of data from the fractured reservoirs commonly exploited for geothermal energy indicate that Rg is closer to 0.1, with a range of approximately 0.05 to 0.2 (Lovekin, 2004; Williams, 2004, 2007). In general this apparent discrepancy in Rg reflects the contrast in thermal energy recovery from complex, fracture-dominated reservoirs compared to the uniform, high- porosity reservoirs considered in the early models. The original values for Rg were derived from models of the effects cooling in a geothermal reservoir due to reinjection or natural inflow of water colder than pre-existing reservoir temperatures (for example, Nathenson, 1975; Bodvarsson and Tsang, 1982; Garg and Pritchett, 1990; Sanyal and Butler, 2005). This is consistent with the optimal extraction of thermal energy from a reservoir, as in general it is possible to produce many times the original volume of fluid from the reservoir in order to recover the thermal energy from the reservoir rock. The challenge is to extend these results to evaluate the thermal effects of injection and production in reservoirs ranging from those containing a few isolated fracture zones to those that are so pervasively fractured as to approach the idealized behavior of uniformly porous reservoirs. The first step in the transition from these uniform reservoirs to fractured reservoirs is managed through implementation of the fracture flow model of Bodvarsson and Tsang (1982). This model provides a means of predicting the propagation of a 10PDF Image | Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources
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