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minimum and maximum values for reservoir temperature and volume. These values are used to generate triangular probability distributions for temperature and volume, and the resulting distributions are combined for an estimate of reservoir thermal energy. A uniform distribution for the geothermal recovery factor is introduced in the next step of the Monte Carlo analysis, and the resulting values for wellhead exergy are transformed to electric power estimates using the utilization efficiency relationship shown in figure 2. The final result is a distribution of electric power generation estimates for each geothermal system (fig. 10), which includes values for the most likely, mean, median, 5 percent and 95 percent electric power generation potential. Summary The USGS is conducting a new assessment of the moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resources of the United States. This new assessment will present a detailed estimate of electrical power generation potential and an evaluation of the major technological challenges for increased geothermal development. The assessment effort involves partnerships with the Department of Energy, Bureau of Land Management, national laboratories, universities, state agencies and the geothermal industry. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir permeability, limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production, and include the potential impact of evolving EGS technology. Improvements incorporated in the new resource assessment include (1) a minimum temperature for electric power production of approximately 90oC (75oC in Alaska), (2) a maximum depth extent for selected geothermal reservoirs of as much as 6 km, (3) a change in the preferred geothermometers used for estimating reservoir temperatures, (4) a revised method for determining recovery factors, and (5) independent evaluations of reservoir permeability using reservoir models, production histories, and chemical tracer tests. The adjustment in expected recovery factors account for the behavior of heterogeneous fracture-dominated reservoirs. Models for the effects of injection within reservoirs of self-similar distributions of fracture permeability reproduce both the observed range of Rg and the flow capacity/volume capacity characteristics of producing fractured geothermal reservoirs. Although these analytical models are not intended as replacements for detailed numerical reservoir models, they do provide a physically realistic justification for applying a range of potential recovery factors to an unexploited reservoir in order to reflect the heterogeneous character of fracture permeability. 13PDF Image | Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources
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