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When considering the growth potential of vanadium production, it is useful to reflect on historical ranges for vanadium and other metals. The blue contours represent the fraction of new production going towards VRFBs, the relevant magnitude of which depends on the competition between vanadium for steel and vanadium for VRFBs, although other use-cases may appear in the future. At present, ca. 90% of vanadium production goes to steel manufacturing and this demand is likely to grow in the future given continued global economic development as well as a shift towards higher-strength steel in construction to reduce total material requirements [71]. While there are opportunities to substitute vanadium with other alloying elements (e.g., manganese, molybdenum, niobium/columbium, titanium, and tungsten) – indeed, some steel mills in China have switched from ferrovanadium to ferroniobium due to high vanadium prices [49] – there is no evidence such substitutions will re-route significant vanadium supply away from steel demand in the near future. Thus, a conservative (business-as-usual) estimate would assume that steel will continue to drive the demand for vanadium at historic rates and only ca. 10% of new vanadium production will be available for VRFBs. However, with growing energy and sustainability concerns, it is reasonable to believe that larger fractions of new vanadium production (say, as much as 50%) may be diverted to VRFBs, particularly if we are able to more rapidly scale supply (as will be discussed in the next section, though note the assumption of CAGR is somewhat coupled to the accessible fractions in this way). We can set a context for the various CAGR scenarios displayed in Figure IV-3 via the results of a study on metal production requirements by Kavlak et al., which determined that only the top 5th percentile of the 32 metals analyzed by the study observed CAGRs over 10% (analyzed from 1972-2012, over 18-year periods), with none exceeding 15% [70]. Comparing vanadium production from 2020 to that of 1990, we compute an average CAGR across this 30-year period of 3.55% [49,72]. However, it should be noted that the year-to-year growth rate is generally highly variable, and vanadium is no exception: some years have seen greater than 30% or 40% growth, though the compound annual growth rate over longer time horizons averages much lower. This is an important distinction captured by the CAGR, as sustained growth of the supply chain is critical to supporting VRFB growth. Notably, the last two years of reported data (2019 and 2020) have shown sizable growth, ca. 20% per year, mainly due to rapid expansion of Chinese co-/by-product production to support record domestic steel manufacturing volumes as a response to stimulus measures triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic [73]. While promising, it is unclear if this growth 74PDF Image | Bringing Redox Flow Batteries to the Grid
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