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rate can be maintained. In light of this analysis, we can now evaluate our ability to scale up production and deploy various amounts of VRFB storage. Looking, for example, at 10% CAGRs as an optimistic value, it appears new VRFB deployment is limited (i.e., f ≤ 50%) to ≤ 100 GWh by 2030 and ≤ 2 TWh by 2050. At the time of writing, there are currently ~100 MWh of RFBs in operation globally [31], and projections for global grid storage demand are anticipated to be at hundreds/thousands GWh- and tens/hundreds TWh- scales by 2030 and 2050, respectively [60]. It must be noted that global demand projections are hard to anticipate, and further only a fraction of it is likely to be filled by RFBs. The bounds to production scalability may not limit VRFB deployment ambitions in the near-term (i.e., 2030), particularly as relevant applications (e.g., renewables support) for long duration energy storage are still nascent. Deployment at this scale (i.e., 10’s-100’s of GWh) would represent promising scale-up for the RFB industry and could drive down manufacturing costs and, potentially, increase vanadium demand such that the vanadium market begins to resemble a traditional commodity market (i.e., reducing price volatility and starting to drive some increase in supply). There is also a broader benefit to VRFB development that is a testament to the versatility of the RFB platform: RFBs represent an architecture that can house a diverse array of chemistries, and the cost reductions and technical advancements from accelerated VRFB deployment could be reasonably translated to other RFB chemistries. For example, GWh-scale deployment of the VRFB could advance general efforts in cell and stack design and optimization, as well as reactor and electrolyte maintenance. Unfortunately, the longer-term (i.e., 2050) bounds – both those determined by realistic CAGRs and those imposed by the resource limits, which do not drastically different in scale – are more limiting since they differ from the global demand projections for grid storage by about an order of magnitude. However, scaling VRFB deployment in the near-term will help drive down costs and reduce the perceived investment risks of RFB systems such that other lower-cost and higher- abundance chemistries may be utilized in these more distant horizons. VRFB systems could even be modified with a new chemistry, simply by replacing the electrolyte, 10+ years into the RFB’s deployment, especially if the vanadium electrolyte is leased [74]. Thus, the VRFB is a well- developed system that could be used as an entry point for larger scale RFB deployment of other chemistries. Conversely, by 2050 it may become evident that systems previously projected to be promising and “low-cost” may in fact require prohibitively expensive active materials (e.g., costs 75PDF Image | Bringing Redox Flow Batteries to the Grid
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