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(F. Gaffney, 2017), (E.Denny, 2010). As other countries decarbonise, however, they may experience similar issues: Great Britain is also predicted to have high levels of wind generation in the 2030s. It is possible that analogous problems may arise in systems with high levels of solar PV and an air conditioning load, although the particular technologies and patterns involved are of course very different. The paper is structured as follows; heating demand in the domestic sector is analysed and appropriate scenarios for its future decarbonisation are created based on policy goals and industry readiness; a modelling methodology is developed in order to investigate the impact and relative advantages of different types of heat electrification on the electricity market; the major modelling results are discussed; the economic potential for heat electrification and the government support needed in order to realise the scenarios considered in this paper are examined. 2. Heat electrification potential in the SEM Electrification of the heating sector will create additional demand for electricity. Heating demand varies by season and time of day. While current electricity demand shows less significant seasonal variations, the daily pattern during the heating season is still correlated with heat demand. Demand for cooling in the domestic sector in Ireland is negligible. The main challenge to electrification of the heating sector is to manage the system during peak times. During off-peak hours baseload generators provide relatively cheap electricity to the market; during peak periods high-cost, low-efficiency peaking generators have to be synchronised with the system. As domestic heating demand is highly correlated with electricity demand, electrified heat could potentially increase peaks in electricity demand compared with the current situation. Figure 2.1 shows the interrelationship between domestic electricity and gas consumption, as well as wholesale market electricity demand for a typical winter day (CER, 2014), (CER, NIAUR, 2012). Energy storage technologies could however help to manage increases in peak electricity demand which arise from heat electrification. Strbac et al (2010) concluded that a projected increase of 92% in peak demand due to heat electrification can be reduced by two-thirds if thermal energy storage and electric vehicle optimised technology control are applied. 3PDF Image | How heat pumps and thermal energy storage with wind power
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