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3. Heat electrification scenarios Heat pumps are expected to play a significant role in the decarbonisation of the heating sector in the UK. National Grid forecasts the installation of between 0.6 and 5.7 million heat pumps by 2030 in GB (National Grid, 2014). This constitutes between circa 1.9% - 17.6% of all projected residential sector dwellings and would add between 1.5 TWh and 13.5 TWh to annual electricity demand. In a parallel report the Committee on Climate Change in the 4th Carbon Budget estimated that up to 6.8 million heat pumps would be needed in the residential sector by 2030 under the “Medium Abatement” scenario. The critical path for meeting 2050 targets requires the uptake of at least 2.3 million heat pumps in the residential sector by 2030, whilst the “High abatement” scenario assumes up to 8m or 32% of the residential sector electrified with heat pumps (Committee on Climate Change, 2010), Table 3.5. Despite the fact that in the Carbon Budget Review potential uptake for heat pumps in the residential sector has been reduced from 25% to 13% of domestic stock (medium scenario) (Committee on Climate Change, 2013), heat pumps are still recognised as the most cost-efficient option for off-gas grid homes (Frontier Economics, ElementEnergy, 2013). In Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, limited gas networks and high dependence on oil in heating markets make heat pumps a more likely technology for heat decarbonisation. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) suggests that the implementation of current national and EU Building Regulations, which include very basic standards for energy efficiency (minimum boiler efficiency of 85 %, phasing out of incandescent bulbs) could result in the housing sector in the Republic of Ireland reducing its output to circa 3 tonnes CO2 per dwelling by 2050 from circa 7.5 tonnes CO2 per dwelling in 2010 (SEAI, 2011). On the other hand, SEAI research suggests that it is possible to achieve nearly 90% decarbonisation of the residential sector, if significant retrofit measures, deployment of renewables and low and zero carbon technologies, as well as high levels of electrification, are applied (SEAI, 2011). This requires the electrification of at least 1.5 million households by 2050 and initially at least 180,000 residential dwelling or 9% of the (SEAI, 2011). The most significant barrier to heat electrification for the domestic sector is the limited capacity of the distribution network. However, because of their high CoP (typically 3, compared with 1 for DEH), heat pumps have a significant advantage in that they can provide three times the amount of heat that DEH can provide, for the same network capacity. Assessments of the ability of low voltage networks to accommodate electrification (or other forms of demand side management) have not yet been performed at scale. However, several studies suggest that current network capacity in urban areas could allow between 20% (Akmal M., 2011) and 30% (P. Mancarella, C. K. Gan, G. Strbac, 2011) of existing fossil fuel heat demand to be displaced by heat pumps. 5PDF Image | How heat pumps and thermal energy storage with wind power
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