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replicates the “Gone Green” scenario of National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (National Grid, 2014). Macroeconomic assumptions (fuel and carbon costs, demand profile, etc.) for the 2030 models are presented in tables 4.1 and 4.2 below. Electricity demand has been defined by quadratic extrapolation of the 2015 total electricity demand taking into account total demand and peak demand projections (SEM Committee, 2014) (EirGrid, SONI, 2017). 4.2 Heat electrification methodology 4.2.1 Future heat demand The future domestic heat profile has been defined by linear extrapolation of the current profile taking into account projections for future housing stock changes. The current weighted average domestic heat demand is based on smart metering trials involving 9000 households in the ROI (CER, 2014) and 200 households in Northern Ireland (NI Electricity, 2014). The profiles obtained are considered statistically robust and a good representation of the average all-island domestic heating profile. The domestic heating profile in Ireland has seasonal characteristics (figure 3.3). The profiles obtained represent one-year domestic heat consumption at one-hour resolution. It is expected that the all-island housing stock will comprise circa 2,936,030 houses in 2030 in both jurisdictions (NISRA, 2015), (SEAI, 2013). Multiplication of the normalised hourly heat profile by a factor of 563,704 (20% of 2030 housing stock) creates the all- island future heating demand profile for electrification. 4.2.2 Heat electrification The projected 2030 heat demand has been used to represent the load for direct (resistive) electrical heating, assuming a Coefficient of Performance (CoP) of 1. It was included directly into the electricity model as additional domestic electricity demand. As mentioned earlier, the main advantage of heat pumps in comparison to DEH is their superior efficiency. In order to represent heat pump electrical load, the heat demand profile has been modified to take into account projections for the future CoP of heat pumps. Although historic heat pump field trials have shown significant differences between operation in laboratory and real houses (J.P. Green, S.A. Smith, and G. Strbac, 2002), it is assumed technological progress will lead to improvements in performance by 2030. The laboratory performance efficiency of heat pumps has therefore been included in the modelling scenarios. According to laboratory tests an air source heat pump (ASHP) achieves a CoP of between 2 and 3.5. Laboratory and field trial tests indicate that performance depends on weather conditions. An analysis performed on data from smart metering trials (CER, 8PDF Image | How heat pumps and thermal energy storage with wind power
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