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2014) (NI Electricity, 2014) shows 76% inverse correlation between maximum ambient daily temperature and domestic heat consumption. This means that during cold winter days heat consumption increases and heat pumps operate less efficiently. Thermal storage performance is also influenced by weather conditions, as different amounts of energy are required to charge the thermal storage tank during cold winter nights compared to warm spring days for example. In order to realistically represent heat pump performance, a dynamic function representing heat pump CoP has been defined based on laboratory test results (figure 4.3), (eq. 1) CoP = 0.0004 × Temp2 + 0.046 × Temp+2.6782 (1) Where Temp - is an ambient temperature, measured in degrees Celsius. Domestic heat consumption has been modified in accordance with this dynamic performance function in order to take ambient temperature into account. The additional electricity demand for HP and DEH is presented in table 4.3 4.2.3 Thermal storage modelling Normalised winter demand represents the average domestic heat consumption. As every individual household has its own unique consumption pattern, the normalised profile represents a smoothed or average peak demand across the whole domestic sector. Analysis of individual household heat consumption shows an average peak demand of 9.96 kW (figure 4.4, table 4.4), whilst average demand is only 4.5 kW. This factor is important for the sizing of energy storage tanks, as their parameters are based on individual household needs. This means that summative storage capacity across the domestic sector will significantly exceed the mean, and therefore can effectively contribute to the dealing with peak demand. Average winter domestic peak demand per household (9.95kW, figure 4.4) multiplied by the number of households (circa 563, 704 households representing 20% of the future stock (NISRA, 2015), (SEAI, 2013)) and the assumed storage duration (1h, 2h, 3h, 4h) has been used to define the total capacity of domestic thermal energy storage which is included in the model (table 4.5). As mentioned earlier, automatic control of thermal storage operation has been assumed for all scenarios. This means that storage systems are assumed to be managed centrally to operate in line with wholesale market needs, without input from consumers. The efficiency of hot water energy storage tanks varies in the range of 50% - 90% at the moment (IEA-ETSAP, 2013), (Alva G., 2018). Assuming improvements in the future, we assume 80% efficiency of sensible energy storage in the 2030 market for all scenarios. 9PDF Image | How heat pumps and thermal energy storage with wind power
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