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5. Modelling results The final set of modelling results considers scenarios for heat electrification using HP and DEH with and without thermal energy storage, and investigates their potential impact on the electricity market. The higher efficiency of heat pumps creates significantly lower additional electricity demand than direct electric heating (figure 5.1). While DEH can add up to 25% to peak demand in evening peak periods during winter, more efficient HP electrification adds less than 8% to deliver the same volume of heat. Electrification with heat pumps adds between 2.80% (HP + 1h ES) to 5% (HP only) of additional annual CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (table 5.1). The lower CoP for DEH logically has a more significant impact on the environment and adds between 13.72% (DEH +2h ES) to 16.58% (DEH only) of CO2 emissions per year. The increased penetration of renewable generators in the 2030 generation fleet amplifies the beneficial impact of electrification on emissions (fig 5.2). As fossil fuel generation is displaced from the fuel mix, a given number of heat pumps will deliver increasing emissions reductions in parallel with increasing levels of grid renewables. In the scenarios described in this study, the capacity of heat pumps installed today would lead to a reduction of approximately 40% in CO2 emissions by 2030 (figure 5.2). Whilst DEH will generate more emissions than gas and oil heating in 2030 in the scenarios assumed, HP electrification results in less than half the CO2 emissions of gas, and approximately one third of the emissions of oil heating, clearly demonstrating the benefits of HP electrification in meeting environmental targets and decarbonising heating sector. The benefits of thermal energy storage can also be observed from Figure 5.3, which shows one week of thermal storage operation and its influence on national demand. As shown in Figure 5.3, by charging energy stores at off peak hours and discharging during peak hours, peaks in electricity demand are significantly reduced. This reduction relates directly to reduced carbon emissions and better system management, as it favours the operation of baseload units in preference to more expensive and carbon intensive peaking plants. Therefore, as shown in table 5.1, storage can help reduce CO2 emissions by circa 2% for HP scenarios and 3% for DEH scenarios. In addition to this, energy storage systems can help in reducing wind curtailment. The major factor that influences wind curtailments in the real market dispatch is the level of system non-synchronous penetration (SNSP). The TSOs in Ireland aim to allow 75% SNSP in the future system. Simulation of the proposed scenarios with application of the 75% SNSP limit suggests that under the BaU market development scenario, c. 7% of 10PDF Image | How heat pumps and thermal energy storage with wind power
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