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The relatively high market share is chosen due to the solutions variety in use. As the solution can be used to generate both electricity and heat, for industrial use and in district heating system – the supply of excessive renewable energy will be a more significant limiting factor for the innovations carbon abatement potential than the ability to take market shares. Net Potential Avoided Emissions 1. BAU scenario According to IEA projections, the industry sector in 2030 will have a demand of 38 505 TWh of fossil- based energy from coal (42%), oil (28%) and natural gas (30%) [6]. The fossil-based energy has an average emission factor of 795.9 gCO2e/kWh (Coal 1 001 gCO2e/kWh; oil 840 gCO2e/kWh; natural gas 469 gCO2e/kWh) [7]. 2. Innovation scenario Considering a technical lifetime of 30 years, the innovation has an emission factor of 2 gCO2e/kWh related to production and deployment of the heat storage [2]. Energy supply forecasts from IEA suggest that the ratio between solar and wind energy will be approximately 1/3 solar energy and 2/3 wind energy in 2030 [6]. Using emission factors for wind power as 12 gCO2e/kWh, solar photovoltaics (PV) as 46 gCO2e/kWh and concentrated solar power (CSP) as 22 gCO2e/kWh [8] gives an average emission factor of 23.12 gCO2e/kWh for stored renewable electricity. Including both deployment emissions and emissions from renewable electricity production, the emissions add up (23.12 gCO2e/kWh + 2 gCO2e/kWh) to 25.12 gCO2e/kWh. The storage has a thermal efficiency of 91% [2]. Assuming that the coal, oil and natural gas input to the industrial sector is primarily used for heat production, this gives a total impact from the innovation scenario as 25.12 / 91% = 27.61 gCO2e/kWh. 3. Rebound effects5 Potential negative rebound effects are e.g. increased energy usage when heat and power is clean (psychological effect) [2]. A positive indirect effect is reduced fuel transportation. However, the emissions from fuel transportation will have a minor effect on the total result and have therefore not been evaluated. 5 Rebound effects may be caused by related consequential effects or by unrelated (and sometimes unintended) effects and are often caused by human behavioural changes in demand for carbon-intensive goods or activities. page 6 Mission Innovation’s NCI – Accelerating innovation and disruptive low and zero carbon solutions – www.misolutionframework.netPDF Image | Sand-Based High Temperature Seasonal Heat Storage
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