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Table 2. Sensitivity analysis Scenarios Change from base case Net potential avoided emissions (MtCO2e/year) Base case 169.8 Reduced market share Increased emission from innovation Increased need of stored energy Results and discussion Reduced from 30% to 10% Increased from 2 to 10 gCO2e/kWh Increased from 17% to 20% 56.6 167.9 202.4 Increased market share Increased from 30% to 50% 283.1 Reduced need of stored energy Reduced from 17% to 10% 101.2 The Sand-Based High Temperature Seasonal Heat Storage and other innovations like it are estimated to enable the potential avoided emissions of 170 MtCO2e/year in 2030. A simplified sensitivity analysis gives potential lower and upper values of 57 MtCO2e/year and 283 MtCO2e/year, respectively. This assessment can only provide an approximate estimate at best since it is attempting to calculate a figure of potential avoided emissions that the impact of a new technology will have in more than 10 years’ time. It is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. The potential avoided emissions are dependent on the future development of renewable energy installations, as the magnitude of fossil fuel replacement is confined to the surplus renewable energy production. The other way around, possibilities to store intermittently produced renewable energy could also facilitate a growth of the renewable electricity sector. In this assessment, the magnitude of potential carbon saving is limited by the generation of renewable energy that needs to be stored. However, it can be argued that the innovation also has the potential to enable the transformation from fossil-based combustion technologies to renewable ones, even though the energy comes from other sources than excessive solar and wind energy. In this way the carbon saving potential of the innovation is significantly larger than the assessment indicates. One current obstacle on the European market is that EUs energy tax does not take the supply and demand of energy into consideration. One of the benefits of the innovation is that it can be charged with energy during periods when there is a large supply of energy at low cost. If the energy tax page 8 Mission Innovation’s NCI – Accelerating innovation and disruptive low and zero carbon solutions – www.misolutionframework.netPDF Image | Sand-Based High Temperature Seasonal Heat Storage
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