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1. SETTING THE SCENE 1.1 The energy transition Globally, energy systems are undergoing a significant transition driven by decarbonisation The manner in which energy is generated, stored, transmitted, distributed and used is changing throughout the world. Various factors are driving these changes, including moves to widen access to energy, to make energy supplies more affordable and secure, and crucially to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions associated with our energy systems. International efforts to mitigate climate change have most recently been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement, which sets a goal to keep the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C. At the time of writing, France, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom have enshrined in law a commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,4 and other countries are looking to follow suit. Looking ahead to 2050, energy system decarbonisation and whole-economy transition will be required to achieve these ambitious international climate change mitigation goals. IRENA releases regularly updated forecasts of its Transforming Energy Scenario for 2050. They envisage how global energy system transition might unfold in a manner which would facilitate the achievement of these goals. Key insights from recent reports which highlight the scale of the challenge are (IRENA, 2020a): • The energy intensity of the global economy will need to fall by about two-thirds. • By 2050 energy-related emissions will need to decline by 70% compared to today’s levels. • The share of electricity generated by renewables will need to rise to 86% by 2050, up from 26% today. Energy is used in a wide range of sectors and areas of human activity, including for power generation, heating and cooling, and in industry, transport and buildings. Figure 14 summarises current global shares of greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy use in these sectors. Emission reduction forecasts for each sector are also presented, showing the decarbonisation opportunitiesavailableundertheTransformingEnergy Scenario. Effectively integrating a higher share of renewables in the power sector will be a key challenge Particular focus is currently on decarbonising the power sector. Renewables for power generation have gained prominence due to cost reductions in technology, which both encourages and is driven by increased uptake. For example, the global average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) fell by 82% between 2010 and 2019 (IRENA, 2020b). The renewable share of electricity generation accounted for 26% in 2017, but is expected to grow to 86% by 2050 (IRENA, 2020a). As such, decarbonisation of electricity production will continue to be an important priority. Wider deployment of renewable generation technologies such as wind, solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) is anticipated. However, changeable weather conditions make these technologies inherently variable and intermittent (IRENA, 2017a). Handling the variability of renewables will pose unique challenges for power system operators as they scale up, particularly ensuring effective power dispatch, system stability and security of supply. A priority in the strategic management of increasing renewables deployment will be avoiding their curtailment, where renewable generators must stop generating to meet grid balancing requirements (IRENA, 2019b). 4 Norway has a 2030 target, and Sweden has a 2045 target. The United Kingdom and France have a 2050 target. 38 INNOVATION OUTLOOKPDF Image | THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE Outlook
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