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Figure 17: Installed molten-salt TES capacity 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 631.3 491.2 147.6 93.9 Planned projects Planned energy scenario Transforming energy scenario (70-90% deployment, cumulative values) IRENA estimates the current installation costs for molten-salt TES to range between USD 26.1/kWh and USD 40/kWh. Assuming an 8-11 hour nominal operating capacity for TES, the cumulative investment needed in molten-salt TES in the next 10 years to match CSP capacity (according to IRENA’s Transforming Energy Scenario) is between USD 12.3 billion to USD 24.4 billion, depending on the CSP technology used. However, if costs continue to decrease for storage technologies, assuming a cost of USD 21.8-25.8/kWh by 2030, then the amount of investment needed could decrease to USD 10.2-15.7 billion. Further growth of molten-salt storage deployment could also be seen as stand-alone bulk storage within the power sector, where there are already plans to convert decommissioned coal generation plants into storage facilities (see Section 4.1). Space cooling The demand for space cooling is increasing globally due to growing overall prosperity, the effects of climate change and rising global temperatures. Air conditioner sales have been rising rapidly among homeowners. According to IRENA’s analysis, energy demand for space cooling reached 8.1 exajoules (EJ) in 2016 and is steadily increasing, forecast to reach almost 11.3 EJ by 2030. Conversely, IRENA estimates that with energy efficiency measures (e.g. insulating and retrofitting buildings) and renewable technologies, the rate of increase could slow to reach 9.3 EJ in 2030 under the Transforming Energy Scenario. Nevertheless, this increase in demand calls for further deployment of TES for cooling to enable further flexibility and demand shifting (see Section 2.3). This can help meet cooling demand with cheaper overall system costs. Such technologies include tank thermal energy storage (TTES), underground thermal energy storage (UTES) and PCM. Currently, out of the total of 400 TES projects identified by IRENA at the end of 2019, over 160 have been used for space-cooling in buildings and districts, amounting to over 13.9 GWh. This number could increase rapidly in the next ten years, especially in North and sub- Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where temperatures are reaching extreme levels in some regions and further advanced and large-scale cooling technologies are adopted. TES can complement this growth to ensure lower system costs and greater integration of VRE through additional demand-side management capabilities for power system operators. 44 INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 GWhPDF Image | THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE Outlook
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