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Given that cooling is delivered primarily through electricity, ever-increasing electricity demand will be another energy system challenge. This will be particularly so during peak demand (of which cooling is already a significant contributor). Matching renewable electricity (especially solar) to cooling needs that last beyond daytime will be a priority. The buildings sector is projected to increase to 270 billion m2 by 2050. On the residential side this is due to rising populations and incomes, leading to preferences for more space per person, and fewer people per household, particularly in developing countries (Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, 2016). For example, India has forecast demand for 20 billion m2 of new residential building space by 2030, equating to a change in residential building energy consumption from 1.9 EJ in 2005 to 8.12 EJ in 2030 – a 450% increase (Global Buildings Performance Network, 2014). According to IRENA analysis, 36% of buildings energy consumption is currently met by renewables, including local use of biomass for space heating and cooking purposes. This fraction will need to rise, and increasing the roll-out of decentralised building-scale renewables may be one key solution. By 2050 the share of renewables could rise to 77% driven by a significant increase in solar thermal and heat pumps from current levels (~10 times higher compared to 2015 levels), with sizeable increases in the uptake of modern cooking stoves, biomass (around double compared to 2015 levels) and geothermal (~6 times higher compared to 2015 levels) (IRENA, 2018). Space cooling is the fastest-growing use of energy in buildings and this trend is especially evident in warmer developing countries, where economies are growing rapidly. As they continue to grow, more and more citizens will have access to cooling equipment and energy use is expected to rise proportionally. For example, 50 million air-conditioning units were bought in China in 2010 (equating to half the entire US stock) (Cox, 2012). In 2016, 6% of total energy use in buildings was for space cooling, which was predominantly met by electricity. Estimates by the IEA project the energy needs for space cooling to triple by 2050, which raises the cooling share of total electricity use to 30% and almost triples its share in total buildings energy use (IEA, 2018b). By 2060 worldwide energy use for space cooling is expected to overtake that of space heating (Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009). Thermal storage could play a significant role in buildings, helping to integrate renewables. TES can help deliver sector coupling through the electrification of heat and can contribute towards meeting the increase in cooling demand. Building-scale TES could contribute to meeting or shifting peak demand The electrification of heat and the increase in cooling demand will result in analogous issues. Decoupling the production of heat and cold from the discharge of heat and cooling allows the shaving of the respective load peaks. This would lessen system reliance on peaker plants, and reduce curtailment of renewables to lower overall system costs. This would be a key benefit in areas/ energy systems that have high VRE penetration. For heating this is applicable both diurnally and seasonally. It is also more effective to store excess energy from renewables as thermal rather than electricity, which makes TES more effective than batteries to reduce the mismatch between load and variable generation (Lund et al., 2016). The increase in electricity demand is also likely to cause significant strains on local networks. Domestic TES can help reduce this strain and delay the need for grid reinforcement. There is significant scope for a range of TES technologies to be deployed directly in buildings TES technologies and systems with different operational temperatures and requirements can meet a range of needs in the buildings sector. Mature TES technologies have been deployed at building scale for many years. In the future these are likely to be supplemented by the newer solutions currently under development. The state of development and deployment varies between the technologies (Figure 46), and this is discussed in detail below. THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE 99PDF Image | THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE Outlook
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