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56 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage table 1.1 Sources of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (2001). Emissions (mtCO2 yr-1) (mtC yr-1) Public electricity and heat production 8,236 2,250 Autoproducers 963 263 Other energy industries 1,228 336 Manufacturing & construction 4,294 1,173 Transport 5,656 1,545 of which: Road 4,208 1,150 Other sectors 3,307 903 of which: Residential 1,902 520 TOTAL 23,684 6,470 Source: IEA, 2003. 1.2.2 Sectoral CO2 emissions the industrial production of some chemicals; other oxides of nitrogen have an indirect effect. A number of other gases make significant contributions (IPCC, 2001c). 1.2.4 Scenarios of future emissions Future emissions may be simulated using scenarios which are: ‘alternative images of how the future might unfold and are (...) tools (...) to analyse how driving forces may influence future emissions (....) and to assess the associated uncertainties.’ ‘The possibility that any single emissions path will occur as described in scenarios is highly uncertain’ (IPCC, 2000a). In advance of the Third Assessment Report, IPCC made an effort to identify future GHG emission pathways. Using several assumptions, IPCC built a set of scenarios of what might happen to emissions up to the year 2100. Six groups of scenarios were published (IPCC, 2000a): the ‘SRES scenarios’. None of these assume any specific climate policy initiatives; in other words, they are base cases which can be used for considering the effects of mitigation options. An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the groups. The six groups were organized into four ‘families’ covering a wide range of key ‘future’ characteristics such as demographic change, economic development, and technological change (IPCC, 2000a). Scenario families A1 and A2 emphasize economic development, whilst B1 and B2 emphasize global and local solutions for, respectively, economic, social and environmental sustainability. In addition, two scenarios, A1F1 and A1T, illustrate alternative developments in energy technology in the A1 world (see Figure TS.1 in IPCC, 2001a). The CO2 emissions from various sources worldwide have been estimated by the IEA (2003). These are shown in Table 1.1, which shows that power generation is the single largest source of emissions. Other sectors where emissions arise from a few large point sources are Other Energy Industries7 and parts of the Manufacturing and Construction sector. Emissions from transport, which is the second largest sector (Table 1.1), have been growing faster than those from energy and industry in the last few decades (IPCC, 2001a); a key difference is that transport emissions are mainly from a multiplicity of small, distributed sources. These differences have implications for possible uses of CO2 capture and storage, as will be seen later in this chapter. 1.2.3 Other greenhouse gas emissions Anthropogenic climate change is mainly driven by emissions of CO2 but other greenhouse gases (GHGs) also play a part8. Since some of the anthropogenic CO2 comes from industrial processes and some from land use changes (mainly deforestation), the contribution from fossil fuel combustion alone is about half of the total from all GHGs. In terms of impact on radiative forcing, methane is the next most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after CO2 (currently accounting for 20% of the total impact) (IPCC, 2001b). The energy sector is an important source of methane but agriculture and domestic waste disposal contribute more to the global total (IPCC, 2001c). Nitrous oxide contributes directly to climate change (currently 6% of the total impact of all GHGs); the main source is agriculture but another is Given the major role played by fossil fuels in supplying energy to modern society, and the long periods of time involved in changing energy systems (Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979), the continued use of fossil fuels is arguably a good base-case scenario. Further discussion of how CCS may affect scenarios can be found in Chapter 8. 7 The Other Energy Industries sector includes oil refineries, manufacture of solid fuels, coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and other energy-producing industries. 8 It is estimated that the global radiative forcing of anthropogenic CO2 is approximately 60% of the total due to all anthropogenic GHGs (IPCC, 2001b). Most of these scenarios yield future emissions which are significantly higher than today’s levels. In 2100, these scenarios show, on average, between 50% and 250% as much annualPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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